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海外公用事业穿越周期的启示:管制藩篱与市场浪潮的共舞
Changjiang Securities·2025-05-25 14:41

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the ongoing electricity system reform in China, inspired by the diverse market mechanisms in the US, particularly the PJM market, is expected to enhance the valuation and performance of utility companies in China [3][9]. - It highlights the contrasting performance of US utility companies, which have achieved significant market returns despite stagnant electricity demand, suggesting that the underlying market mechanisms play a crucial role in their success [19][22]. Summary by Sections Overview of US Utility Market - The US utility market is characterized by both regulated and deregulated segments, with approximately 60% of electricity demand still under regulation, ensuring stable returns for utility companies [26][28]. - The report discusses the regulatory framework that allows companies like NEE to achieve a regulated return on equity (ROE) between 9.3% and 11.3%, providing a stable income stream [7][41]. Performance of Regulated Utilities - Regulated utilities in the US, such as NEE, have shown consistent performance due to their ability to recover costs and earn a stable return, which is less affected by fluctuations in demand or fuel prices [40][46]. - The report notes that these companies have leveraged their stable cash flows to invest in renewable energy, contributing to their long-term growth and market performance [48][51]. Performance of Non-Regulated Utilities - Non-regulated utilities have also demonstrated impressive market returns, with capital market returns ranging from 400% to 800%, driven by well-structured market mechanisms in regions like PJM and ERCOT [8][53]. - The report attributes their success to the ability to balance profitability and system economics through competitive market structures, which provide stable dividend returns to investors [8][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that as China's electricity system reform progresses, companies with stable earnings from hydropower and nuclear power should be closely monitored, including Yangtze Power, Guodian Power, and China Nuclear Power [9]. - It also recommends focusing on thermal and green energy assets, highlighting companies like Huaneng International and Longyuan Power as potential investment opportunities [9].