Goldman Sachs·2025-05-25 14:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a 12-month target price of HK$595, indicating a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of HK$516.50 [2][20]. Core Insights - Tencent's unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets provide multiple monetization levers, enabling the company to deliver compounding earnings through macro cycles [2]. - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary of AI applications, particularly through its WeChat super-app and Tencent Cloud, which ranks among the top three public cloud players in China by scale [2]. - The report highlights the tangible benefits from AI-driven adtech upgrades, leading to improved click-through rates (CTR) across various advertising properties [12]. - Tencent's gaming segment continues to thrive, with record gross receipts from evergreen titles, indicating strong user engagement and productivity in game development [12]. - The fintech business has significant growth potential, particularly in wealth management and lending, with a focus on improving blended take rates [16]. Advertising - Advertising has benefited from AI-driven upgrades, with Video Account and Moments being the top two revenue streams in Weixin advertising [12]. - The company has not aggressively monetized live streaming e-commerce yet, viewing it as a transaction element within the Weixin ecosystem [12]. Gaming - Tencent's evergreen games, such as HoK and PKE, continue to achieve record grossing after years of operation, with expectations for healthier economics and reduced reliance on channels [12]. - The company is exploring cross-platform launches and maintaining close relationships with investee studios globally, focusing on Europe and Asia [12]. AI Investment and Monetization - Tencent is committed to investing a low teens percentage of revenue in capital expenditures, primarily for in-house AI model development and applications [12]. - The company is strategically focusing on PaaS and SaaS for external cloud services, aiming for more sustainable margins [12]. Fintech - The fintech segment emphasizes risk management as a top priority, with expectations for improved blended take rates and growth opportunities in wealth management and lending [16]. - The company anticipates a narrowing gap between revenue growth and operating profit growth through reinvestment of operating leverage from high-margin revenue streams into AI initiatives [16]. Financial Projections - Total revenues are projected to grow from RMB 660.26 billion in 2024 to RMB 836.65 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [20]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in net profit, with non-GAAP net profit expected to rise from RMB 222.70 billion in 2024 to RMB 299.63 billion by 2027 [20].