摩根大通：贸易战有所缓和但影响仍大

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant reduction in the US effective tariff rate from 145% to 39%, which has led to a lowered recession probability from 60% to 40% [2][5]. Core Insights - The trade war between the US and China has seen a de-escalation, with tariffs on Chinese products significantly reduced, impacting global economic forecasts positively [2][5]. - Despite the reduction in tariffs, risks remain tilted to the downside due to potential re-intensification of the trade war and sector-specific tariffs that could increase the effective US tariff rate [5][12]. - The direct global growth drag from tariffs is now estimated at 0.5 percentage points, down from previous estimates, but could rise to 0.8 percentage points if 25% tariffs are imposed on currently exempt sectors [22][26]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The US effective tariff rate has decreased to 39%, while China's tariff on US imports is now at 28%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point reduction in the effective US tariff rate to 13.4% [2][12]. - The report anticipates that the US will maintain a baseline tariff of around 10% for most countries, with potential sector-specific tariffs increasing the overall effective rate [8][11]. Economic Impact - The report highlights that the direct impact of tariffs on global GDP has been scaled back, with the US and China experiencing reduced growth hits of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively [26][28]. - The overall GDP forecasts for the US and China have been upgraded by 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively, reflecting improved economic conditions [26][28]. Sector-Specific Risks - The report notes that sectoral tariffs could lead to significant increases in effective tariff rates, particularly affecting countries like Taiwan, which could see its effective tariff rise from 4.8% to as high as 12.3% or 23.5% depending on the tariff rate applied [16][18]. - The ongoing Section 232 investigations may result in additional tariffs on strategic sectors, which could further impact economic growth and trade dynamics [16][18].