汇丰：中通快递-买入，摆脱价格战困境

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express with an unchanged target price of USD 22.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 25.7% from the current share price of USD 17.50 [5][31]. Core Insights - ZTO's 1Q25 revenues missed consensus estimates by 7%, with adjusted net profit also falling short by 5%. Despite a 19% year-on-year volume growth, ZTO's market share decreased to 18.9% [2][11]. - The report highlights the intense competition in the industry, leading to a significant decline in average selling price (ASP) by 8% year-on-year, which reflects the fragility of pricing in a price-sensitive market [2][3]. - ZTO aims for a volume growth of 20-24% in 2025, with strategic initiatives to penetrate low-value parcels and improve operational efficiency [3][4]. Financial Performance - For FY25, ZTO is expected to achieve a 7% year-on-year growth in EBIT and a 9% growth in recurring EPS, both slightly ahead of consensus estimates [4][11]. - The report projects a 6% decline in average revenue per parcel (ARPP) year-on-year, but anticipates that volume growth and lower unit costs will drive earnings growth [4][25]. - ZTO's 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA grew by only 1% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in profitability growth [20][11]. Market Position and Valuation - ZTO's market capitalization stands at USD 14.08 billion, with a free float of 73% [7][16]. - The report notes that ZTO's valuation is supported by a 5% total dividend yield and a significant unused buyback quota of USD 772 million as of 1Q25 [5][31]. - ZTO's current enterprise value (EV) is higher than its peers despite having a lower market share, attributed to its superior profitability [31][32]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings estimates for 2025-27 remain largely unchanged, with EPS projected at RMB 12.90 for 2025, RMB 14.18 for 2026, and RMB 15.40 for 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2024 to 2027 [25][29]. - The report anticipates continued volume growth, particularly in reverse logistics, which may help buffer against ASP erosion [11][25]. Operational Data - ZTO's parcel volume in 1Q25 reached 8.54 billion, growing 19% year-on-year, although it lagged behind the industry growth of 22% [20][21]. - The report forecasts a 21% year-on-year growth in parcel volume for 2Q25, with an expected market share increase to 20.7% [21][23].