五年前我们问"谁会是最终赢家"，如今战局变了吗？ 作者/毕中臣 2025年，"十四五"规划收官之年，现代物流在复杂多变的发展环境中顶住压力，以14.3万亿元总收入、4.1%同比增速的答卷，印证了其作为生产性服务业 支柱的不可替代性。 展望未来，行业正逐步从规模扩张期进入质效提升期——结构优化、动力转换成为主线。而在这轮变革中，零担快运企业竞争格局发生了翻天覆地的变 化：头部企业逐渐从"价格战"转向"AI赋能"。 2021年曾发文《研判：零担快运龙头之战开演，谁会是最终赢家》，站在"十五五"前夕回望，战局已然生变。本文将复盘零担快运关键事件，探寻行业下 一个破局点。 01 行业格局：从百家争鸣到三足鼎立 一、市场规模：持续增长的万亿蓝海 根据国家统计局数据，2025年我国货运量达587亿吨，同比增速3.2%。按照货物运输工具不同分为公路、水运、铁路、民航四种，其中公路货运量高达 432.9亿吨，占比货运市场73.7%，同比增速3.4%，公路货运市场份额巨大，可以孕育多家千亿级市值物流企业。 按照运输货物的重量公斤段对公路货运市场进一步拆分为：快递-快运-整车，按照收入排序，快递<快运<整车，中国公路货运呈"金字 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨航空货运与物流 [Table_Title] 快递反内卷进入第二阶段，权益保障重塑行业定 价 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 3 月以来，快递行业对于整治"内卷式"竞争的重视度进一步提高，快递"反内卷"进 入第二阶段。本轮"反内卷"不同点在于：1）保障小哥权益是本轮"反内卷"治理的重点。首 先，司法部明确将通过立法手段着力化解"内卷式"竞争；其次，行政监管持续加码，各省派 费开启上涨；2）预期之外的电商税，驱动行业集中度提升。当前快递板块 26 年 PE 估值 11- 12X，盈利改善确定性高，胜率赔率皆具吸引力，关注 25Q4 和 26Q1 业绩验证期。重点推荐 龙头中通、圆通，有望实现量价齐升，龙头估值溢价有望修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Tabl ...

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 3 月以来，快递行业对于整治"内卷式"竞争的重视度进一步提高，快递"反内卷"进 入第二阶段。本轮"反内卷"不同点在于：1）保障小哥权益是本轮"反内卷"治理的重点。首 先，司法部明确将通过立法手段着力化解"内卷式"竞争；其次，行政监管持续加码，各省派 费开启上涨；2）预期之外的电商税，驱动行业集中度提升。当前快递板块 26 年 PE 估值 11- 12X，盈利改善确定性高，胜率赔率皆具吸引力，关注 25Q4 和 26Q1 业绩验证期。重点推荐 龙头中通、圆通，有望实现量价齐升，龙头估值溢价有望修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨航空货运与物流 [Table_Title] 快递反内卷进入第二阶段，权益保障重塑行业定 价 报告要点 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 航空货运与 ...

❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 股东回报&回购：公司在公告中表示派发半年度股息 0.39 美元/股；自 2024 年 3 月起，中通一直维持每半年派发一次股息的政策，分派率不低于上一年调整 后净利润的 40%；从 2026 年起，本公司目标年度股东回报总额比例不低于上 一财年调整后净利润的 50%。新回购计划：未来两年回购不超过 15 亿美元。 ❖ 投资建议：我们在 3 月 14 日发布公司深度中通快递：电商快递步入新阶段， 中通料享龙头红利——大物流时代系列研究（三十）。 我们认为电商快递行业正步入高质量发展新阶段，在反内卷式竞争持续推进 的背景下，行业价格将保持稳定，同时头部快递企业的市场份额有望进一步提 升，中通作为行业龙头，有望在新阶段中进一步体现"规模为基、质效并举" 的龙头价值。 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 ...

-21% -13% -5% 2% 10% 18% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 反内卷红利逐步释放，长期龙头价值凸显 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司点评 / 2026.03.19 | 投资评级:买入(维持) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-03-18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 196.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.64 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.70 | 最近 12 月市场表现 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至》 2025-11-27 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 44,281 | 49 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 亿元 若剔除所得税返还的影响，根据我们测算，Q4 单票调整后净利润环比 Q3 提 升约 0.033 元）。25 年全年累计调整后净利润 95.1 亿元，同比下滑 6.3%，单 票调整后净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下滑 17.2%，降幅约 0.05 元。 业务量：25Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件，同比增长 9.2%，超过行业增速 4.2 个 pct，Q4 公司市场份额 19.6%，同比提升 0.8 个 pct，环比 25Q3 提升 0.2 个 pct。 25 年全年完成包裹量 385.2 亿件，同比+13.3%，实现市占率 19.4%，同比持 平。2025 年散件业务量持续提升，25Q4 实现日均 980 万件，同比增长超 38%。 单票收入：25Q4 单 ...

2026 年 3 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业/公司点评 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,025 | 0.61 | 1.54 | | 恒生国企 | 8,836 | 0.10 | -0.88 | | 恒生科技 | 5,108 | 0.01 | -7.39 | | 上证综指 | 4,063 | 0.32 | 2.37 | | 深证综指 | 2,681 | 0.97 | 5.92 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,346 | 2.02 | 4.47 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,225 | -1.63 | -3.82 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,625 | -1.36 | -3.23 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,152 | -1.46 | -4.69 | | 德国 DAX | 23,502 | -0.96 | -4.03 | | 法国 CAC | 7,970 ...

18 March 2026 | 7:55PM HKT Equity Research ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) 4Q25 review: Strong 2026 volume and profit growth outlook; Upsized shareholder return policy; Buy Key Data _____________________________________ | | | | Market cap: $19.6bn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Enterprise value: $17.5bn 3m ADTV: $47.9mn | | | | | | China Ecommerce & Logistics | China | | | | | | M&A Rank: 3 | | | | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | | | | GS Forecast __________________________________ | | | ...

Profitability metrics declined year-over-year. Yan said income from operations decreased 7.6% to CNY 3.2 billion in the fourth quarter and declined 11.1% to CNY 10.5 billion for the full year. Gross profit fell 2.1% to CNY 3.7 billion in the quarter and declined 10.5% to CNY 12.3 billion for the year, with gross margin down 3.7 percentage points to 25.4% in Q4 and down 6.0 points to 25.0% for 2025.CFO Huiping Yan said ZTO’s parcel volume rose 13.3% to 38.5 billion for full-year 2025. Total revenue increased ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue increased by 12.3% to CNY 14.5 billion, while for the full year, it rose by 10.9% to CNY 49.1 billion [15] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was CNY 2.7 billion, and for the full year, it reached CNY 9.5 billion [15] - Gross profit declined by 2.1% to CNY 3.7 billion for Q4 and by 10.5% to CNY 12.3 billion for the full year [18] - Operating cash flow surged by 50.6% to CNY 4.2 billion in Q4 and reached CNY 12 billion for the year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual retail parcel volume grew by 46% year-over-year, with daily retail volume reaching close to 10 million parcels in Q4 [8] - The average selling price (ASP) for the core express delivery business increased by 2.9% in Q4, driven by a positive contribution from an improved mix in key account volume [15] - Total cost of revenue for Q4 was CNY 10.8 billion, increasing by 18.2%, while for the full year, it was CNY 36.8 billion, up by 20.5% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The express delivery industry in China achieved a steady growth of 13.6% in 2025, with parcel volume reaching 200 billion [5] - ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points, maintaining a steady market share year-over-year [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ZTO is committed to a high-quality development strategy, focusing on service quality, operational efficiency, and maintaining a healthy competitive environment [7][9] - The company plans to optimize network policies and incentive mechanisms to ensure steady volume growth and improved cost efficiency [10] - ZTO aims to integrate service quality, market share, and reasonable profit as part of its long-term strategy [11] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with a focus on both quantity and quality [9][11] - The company anticipates parcel volume growth for 2026 to be between 10%-13% year-over-year, indicating a commitment to outperform the industry average [19] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable and rational competitive order in the industry [30] Other Important Information - ZTO announced a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS and a new $1.5 billion share buyback program [20] - The company is advancing its digital transformation and integrating AI technology across its operations to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on anti-involution initiatives and pricing trends - Management stated that the competitive landscape has improved since the introduction of the anti-involution policy, with parcel prices recovering and a focus on safeguarding frontline interests [23] - The industry is expected to transition from volume-driven growth to a focus on high-quality development, with ZTO guiding for growth faster than the industry average [24][25] Question: 2026 priorities and AI applications - ZTO's priority for 2026 is to integrate service quality, market share, and reasonable profit, with a focus on optimizing network policies [30] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve customer service [39][41]