It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) . Shares have lost about 13.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ZTO Express Cayman due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, with the SEC, highlighting its position as a leading express delivery company in China [1] Company Overview - ZTO is recognized as a leading and fast-growing express delivery company in China, providing express delivery services and value-added logistics services through a reliable nationwide network [4] - The company operates a scalable network partner model, which supports the growth of e-commerce in China by leveraging network partners for pickup and last-mile delivery while controlling the critical line-haul transportation and sorting network [5] Financial Reporting - The annual report on Form 20-F, which includes audited consolidated financial statements, is available on the company's investor relations website and the SEC's website [1][3] - The company offers a hard copy of its annual report free of charge to shareholders upon request [2]

Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM 20-F (Mark One) ☐ REGISTRATION STATEMENT PURSUANT TO SECTION 12(b) OR 12(g) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 OR ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to OR ☐ SHELL COMPANY REPORT PURSUANT TO SE ...

研究报告 Research Report 9 Apr 2025 盈利预测与估值：2025 年，公司将侧重市场份额的提升，预计 2025 年业务量增速为 20%-24%，该目标或将带来行业价格竞争。 在 此 背 景 下， 我 们 下调公 司 25-26 年 经 调 整 归母 净 利 润至 101.26/113.69（原 25-26 预测为 121.05/132.69 亿元），预计公司 2027 年经调整归母净利润为 132.00 亿元，对应经调整 EPS 分别为 12.6/14.1/16.4 元。给予 2025 年 15 倍估值（原为 2024 年 18x）， 对应目标价 25.89 美元（原为 32.57 美元，下调 20.5%），维持"优 于大市"评级。 中通快递（开曼） ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US) 24 年稳盈利，25 年将侧重件量增速 Stable Profitability in 2024, Parcel Volume Growth Acceleration in 2025 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] ...

研究报告 Research Report 9 Apr 2025 中通快递（开曼） ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US) 24 年稳盈利，25 年将侧重件量增速 Stable Profitability in 2024, Parcel Volume Growth Acceleration in 2025 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 US$16.51 目标价 US$25.89 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 US$14.31bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$52.27mn 发行股票数目 598.37mn 自由流通股 (%) - 1 年股价最高最低值 US$26.99-US$16.51 注：现价 US$18.17 为 2025 年 04 月 04 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth ...

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Core Insights - ZTO Express reported mixed fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, with earnings per share of 44 cents missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents, while total revenues of $1.77 billion surpassed the estimate of $1.65 billion [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's adjusted net income for the quarter was 2.7 billion, and parcel volume reached 9.7 billion, with an average daily retail parcel volume exceeding 7 million, marking a nearly 50% increase year over year [3] - Revenues from the core express delivery business improved by 22.4% year over year, driven by an 11% growth in parcel volume and a 10.3% increase in unit price [4] - Gross profit improved by 20.2% year over year, although the gross margin rate fell to 29.1% from 29.5% in the previous year [5] Operational Statistics - Revenues from freight forwarding services declined by 11.7% year over year due to falling cross-border e-commerce pricing, while revenues from accessory sales increased by 11.7% [5] - Total operating expenses were RMB306.5 million ($42.0 million), down from RMB373.2 million in the previous year [6] Cash and Dividends - ZTO Express ended the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $1.84 billion, an increase from $1.66 billion at the end of the prior quarter [6] - The board approved a semi-annual cash dividend of 35 cents per American depositary share, representing a 40% dividend payout ratio [7] Share Repurchase Program - The board approved an increase in the share repurchase program to $2 billion, with the effective period extended through June 30, 2025; as of December 31, 2024, ZTO had repurchased 50,546,707 ADSs for $1,222.0 million [8] Future Guidance - ZTO Express expects its parcel volume for 2025 to be in the range of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20-24% [9] Stock Performance - ZTO shares have gained 9% year to date, outperforming the transportation-services industry [11]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB12,919.7 million (US$1,770.0 million), an increase of 21.7% from RMB10,619.4 million in Q4 2023[8] - Adjusted net income for Q4 2024 reached RMB2,733.3 million (US$374.5 million), a 23.4% increase from RMB2,214.4 million in Q4 2023[5] - Adjusted net income was RMB10,150.4 million (US$1,390.6 million), up from RMB9,005.9 million last year[40] - Net income rose by 1.5% to RMB8,887.6 million (US$1,217.6 million) compared to RMB8,754.5 million last year[38] - Adjusted net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB8,816,835, reflecting a 0.8% increase from RMB8,749,004 in 2023[62] - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB8.89 billion, a slight increase of 1.5% from RMB8.75 billion in 2023[67] Revenue Growth - For the full year 2024, total revenues were RMB44,280.7 million (US$6,066.4 million), a 15.3% increase from RMB38,418.9 million in 2023[5] - Total revenues increased by 15.3% to RMB44,280.7 million (US$6,066.4 million) from RMB38,418.9 million last year[24] - Revenues for Q4 2024 reached RMB 12,919,702, representing a 21.7% increase from RMB 10,619,434 in Q4 2023[62] Parcel Volume - Parcel volume increased to 9,665 million in Q4 2024, representing an 11.0% growth from 8,705 million in Q4 2023[6] - The average daily retail parcel volume exceeded 7 million, nearly a 50% increase compared to the same quarter last year[7] - The company expects parcel volume for 2025 to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion, representing a 20% to 24% year-over-year increase[46] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was RMB4,615.3 million (US$632.3 million), up 26.4% from RMB3,651.8 million in Q4 2023[5] - EBITDA increased to RMB15,094.3 million (US$2,067.9 million) from RMB13,857.8 million last year[41] - Adjusted EBITDA was RMB16,354.9 million (US$2,240.6 million), compared to RMB14,107.3 million last year[42] - Basic and diluted earnings per ADS attributable to ordinary shareholders were RMB10.95 (US$1.50) and RMB10.70 (US$1.47), respectively[38] Costs and Expenses - Total cost of revenues increased by 14.2% to RMB30,563.6 million (US$4,187.2 million) from RMB26,756.4 million last year[25] - Total operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, were RMB1,940,233, an increase from RMB1,654,602 in 2023[62] Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow from operating activities for Q4 2024 was RMB2,806.3 million (US$384.5 million), compared to RMB3,923.3 million in Q4 2023[5] - Cash and cash equivalents rose from RMB 12.33 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.47 billion in 2024, an increase of 9.2%[66] - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased from RMB 13.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.43 billion in 2024, a decline of 14.4%[66] - Total assets increased from RMB 88.47 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.34 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 4.4%[64] Shareholder Returns and Equity - The company announced a semi-annual dividend of US$0.35 per share[1] - The company has a remaining US$778.0 million available under its share repurchase program[45] - The company’s total equity increased from RMB 60.28 billion in 2023 to RMB 62.67 billion in 2024, a growth of 4.0%[64] - The number of shares outstanding decreased slightly from 804.72 million in 2023 to 798.62 million in 2024[64] Future Outlook - The company estimates industry growth for 2025 to be around 15%[7] - The company expects continued growth driven by the expansion of e-commerce in China and its scalable network partner model[60] - The company plans to enhance its logistics services and expand its market presence through strategic partnerships and technology investments[60] Management Insights - ZTO's management emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP measures like adjusted EBITDA for understanding operational performance[51]

Core Insights - ZTO Express is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 18, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates remaining flat at 47 cents and revenue expectations at $1.66 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.8% [1][2] Financial Performance Expectations - High operating expenses are anticipated to negatively impact the company's bottom line, although top-line growth is expected to be driven by strong parcel volumes, particularly in the express delivery services unit [3] - The company has revised its 2024 parcel volume guidance to a range of 33.7 billion to 33.9 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 11.6% to 12.3%, down from a previous estimate of 34.73 billion to 35.64 billion [4] Revenue Insights - Revenues from the freight forwarding services unit are expected to be adversely affected by weak freight demand, with an update on the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China anticipated during the fourth-quarter conference call [5] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for ZTO Express, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position [6][7]