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公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）： Q4 市场份额重回 增长，现金回购与提升分红优化股东回报 事件：公司发布 2025 年报，公司全年完成业务量 385.2 亿件，同比增长 13.3%， 其中 Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件同比增长 9.2%。公司全年实现调整后净利润 95.1 亿，同比下降 6.3%，其中 Q4 实现调整后净利润 26.9 亿，同比下降 1.4%。 Q4 件量增速跑赢行业均值，26 年业务量指引同比增长 10%-13%：25 年 Q4 公司业务量增速为 9.2%，高于行业均值的 5.0%，市场份额从 25 年同期的 18.8%提升至 19.6%，这是公司 23 年 Q1 以来首次实现单季度市场份额同比 提升。23 年初到 25 年上半年，行业价格竞争烈度逐渐加剧，以价换量现象严 重，而公司坚持量价均衡提升的策略，件量增速一度落后于行业均值，但随着 25 年下半年反内卷政策持续发力，行业以价换量现象受到遏制，公司在服务 质量层面的优势重新凸显，市场份额同比回升。 业务量指引方面，公司预计 2026 年全年包裹量在 423.7-435.2 亿件，对应同 比增长约 10%-13 ...

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）： Q4 市场份额重回 增长，现金回购与提升分红优化股东回报 事件：公司发布 2025 年报，公司全年完成业务量 385.2 亿件，同比增长 13.3%， 其中 Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件同比增长 9.2%。公司全年实现调整后净利润 95.1 亿，同比下降 6.3%，其中 Q4 实现调整后净利润 26.9 亿，同比下降 1.4%。 Q4 件量增速跑赢行业均值，26 年业务量指引同比增长 10%-13%：25 年 Q4 公司业务量增速为 9.2%，高于行业均值的 5.0%，市场份额从 25 年同期的 18.8%提升至 19.6%，这是公司 23 年 Q1 以来首次实现单季度市场份额同比 提升。23 年初到 25 年上半年，行业价格竞争烈度逐渐加剧，以价换量现象严 重，而公司坚持量价均衡提升的策略，件量增速一度落后于行业均值，但随着 25 年下半年反内卷政策持续发力，行业以价换量现象受到遏制，公司在服务 质量层面的优势重新凸显，市场份额同比回升。 业务量指引方面，公司预计 2026 年全年包裹量在 423.7-435.2 亿件，对应同 比增长约 10%-13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing price increases due to rising oil prices and a trend against excessive competition, with multiple regions implementing price hikes [1][10]. - The industry is entering a new phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving service quality and maintaining stable pricing, which is expected to benefit leading companies [3][84]. - The volume growth in the express delivery sector is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in the growth rate of delivery volumes in early 2026 compared to the previous year [2][12]. Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Multiple express delivery companies have raised prices in response to increased transportation costs due to rising oil prices, with adjustments starting from March 23, 2026, in various provinces [1][10]. - The price adjustments reflect a broader trend of stabilizing prices in the industry, with significant increases in single-package revenue reported by major companies [2][11]. Volume Growth - The growth rate of express delivery volumes has shown signs of recovery, with January and February 2026 reporting a 7.1% increase compared to previous months [2][12]. - Major companies like YTO and ZTO have outperformed the market in terms of volume growth, indicating a strengthening competitive position [15][16]. Market Positioning - Leading companies in the express delivery sector are expected to gain market share as they benefit from improved volume structures and pricing strategies [3][13]. - ZTO is highlighted as a key player with a commitment to enhancing investor returns, while YTO continues to show strong performance metrics [18][19][86]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued investment in leading express delivery companies such as ZTO, YTO, and Shentong, emphasizing their potential for growth in the evolving market landscape [3][20][21]. - The report also highlights the importance of maintaining a focus on performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and express delivery [7][82].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨中通快递-W（02057.HK） [Table_Title] "反内卷"驱动盈利修复，股东回报提升凸显配 置价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q4，公司营业收入同比增长 12.3%至 145.1 亿元，调整后净利同比下降 1.4%至 26.9 亿 元。2025Q4，公司份额同比提升 0.8pct 至 19.6%，伴随电商税落地，低价电商加速退出，驱 动行业集中度提升。2025Q4，单票经营利润环比提升 0.05 元，"反内卷"驱动利润逐步改善。 同时，公司明确 2026 年起，年度股东回报比例（含现金股息及回购）不低于 50%，回报确定 性大幅提升。伴随头部快递回归舒适区，持续推荐中通快递，建议重视低估值、高回报的"HALO" 资产估值修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's revenue increased by 12.3% year-on-year to 14.51 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 1.4% to 2.69 billion yuan. The company's market share rose by 0.8 percentage points to 19.6%, driven by the implementation of e-commerce taxes and the accelerated exit of low-cost e-commerce players, leading to increased industry concentration [2][4]. - The company has announced that starting in 2026, the annual shareholder return ratio (including cash dividends and buybacks) will not be less than 50%, significantly enhancing return certainty. With leading express companies returning to a comfortable zone, the report continues to recommend ZTO Express, emphasizing the importance of undervalued, high-return "HALO" asset valuation recovery [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's revenue grew by 10.9% year-on-year to 49.1 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit decreased by 6.3% to 9.51 billion yuan. In Q4 2025, revenue was 14.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [4]. - The company’s parcel volume increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 10.56 billion parcels in Q4 2025, with a significant rise in express prices due to the "anti-involution" policy [7]. Cost Management - In Q4 2025, the single parcel transportation cost was 0.37 yuan, sorting cost was 0.26 yuan, and other costs were 0.36 yuan, showing a mixed trend in cost management. The single parcel gross profit improved by 0.04 yuan to 0.35 yuan, benefiting from price increases and cost optimization [7]. Shareholder Returns - The board approved a new share buyback plan, authorizing up to 1.5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 24 months. The company aims to maintain a stable dividend policy with a payout ratio of no less than 40% of adjusted net profit starting from March 2024 [7]. Market Positioning - The report highlights that as the "anti-involution" consensus deepens and e-commerce taxes are implemented, low-cost express services are gradually shrinking, leading to a substantial upgrade in industry competition. The company is expected to continue improving its market share and profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 223.58 HKD for the Hong Kong stock and 28.57 USD for the US stock [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in main revenue from 44.28 billion RMB in 2024 to 63.96 billion RMB in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.3% [2][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is expected to be 9.51 billion RMB, with a slight decline of 6.3% year-on-year, while the fourth quarter revenue for 2025 reached 14.51 billion RMB, up 12.3% year-on-year [9]. - The company is transitioning from a growth model driven solely by low prices to one that emphasizes quality and customer satisfaction, aiming to maintain its leading position in both business volume and profitability [9]. Financial Projections - Main revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 44,281 million RMB - 2025: 49,099 million RMB - 2026: 55,682 million RMB - 2027: 60,366 million RMB - 2028: 63,955 million RMB - The expected growth rates for these years are 15.3%, 10.9%, 13.4%, 8.4%, and 5.9% respectively [2][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 10.88 RMB for 2024, increasing to 17.17 RMB by 2028 [2][9]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced its single-package transportation costs by 12.2% year-on-year, and sorting center operational costs by 3.7%, attributed to economies of scale and improved operational efficiencies [9]. - The ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses to revenue has decreased from 6.1% to 5.4%, indicating ongoing cost control improvements [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to enhance its shareholder return mechanism, targeting a total annual return of no less than 50% of the previous fiscal year's adjusted net profit starting in 2026 [9]. - A new share buyback plan of up to 1.5 billion USD is authorized for the next 24 months, reflecting management's confidence in long-term growth [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][7] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 49.099 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.513 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.3% [7] - The company achieved a business volume of 10.558 billion parcels in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, significantly exceeding industry growth rates [7] - ZTO Express emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a target of at least 50% of adjusted net profit for comprehensive shareholder returns starting in 2026 [7] - The company has completed a share repurchase plan of 2 billion USD and has authorized an additional 1.5 billion USD repurchase plan valid for 24 months [7] - The report has raised profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting adjusted net profits of 11.127 billion, 12.604 billion, and 14.106 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.97%, 13.27%, and 11.92% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2024: 44.281 billion RMB - 2025: 49.099 billion RMB - 2026E: 54.388 billion RMB - 2027E: 59.562 billion RMB - 2028E: 64.532 billion RMB [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 10.151 billion RMB - 2025: 9.513 billion RMB - 2026E: 11.127 billion RMB - 2027E: 12.604 billion RMB - 2028E: 14.106 billion RMB [6][8] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12x for 2026E, 10x for 2027E, and 9x for 2028E [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][7] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 49.099 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the adjusted net profit was 9.513 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.3% [7] - The company achieved a business volume of 10.558 billion parcels in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, significantly outpacing industry growth [7] - ZTO Express emphasizes shareholder returns, committing to a target of at least 50% of adjusted net profit for comprehensive shareholder returns starting in 2026 [7] - The company has completed a share repurchase plan of 2 billion USD and has authorized an additional 1.5 billion USD repurchase plan valid for 24 months [7] - The report has raised profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting adjusted net profits of 11.127 billion, 12.604 billion, and 14.106 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16.97%, 13.27%, and 11.92% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2024: 44.281 billion RMB - 2025: 49.099 billion RMB - 2026E: 54.388 billion RMB - 2027E: 59.562 billion RMB - 2028E: 64.532 billion RMB [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 10.151 billion RMB - 2025: 9.513 billion RMB - 2026E: 11.127 billion RMB - 2027E: 12.604 billion RMB - 2028E: 14.106 billion RMB [6][8] - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12x for 2026E, 10x for 2027E, and 9x for 2028E [7]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which have a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in stock price movements [4]. Company Performance and Outlook - The recent upgrade reflects an improvement in ZTO Express's underlying business, suggesting that investors may respond positively by driving the stock price higher [5]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2026, ZTO Express is expected to earn $1.83 per share, with a 1.1% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a proven track record of generating significant returns for top-ranked stocks [7]. - ZTO Express's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].