China Express Delivery Sector Expert call takeaways – pricing controls continue Expect call on latest pricing We recently held an expert call with a leading express franchisee to better understand the latest pricing movements in industry key regions including Guangdong province and Yiwu city. Key takeaways: Our view: We turned more optimistic on the sector given the favorable pricing backdrop. We like ZTO, as more disciplined pricing should support both its share gains and profitability. We continue to favo ...

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/28-2026/3/6）交运指数下跌 0.7%，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.1%，跑赢大盘 0.3%，排名 8/29。交运子板块 中航运板块涨幅最大(+6.0%)，航空板块跌幅最大(-8.1%)。 行业观点 快递：两会再提反内卷利好快递。上周（2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 42.31 亿件，同比+12.6%,环比 +424.9%；累计投递量约 35.43 亿件，同比-6.3%,环比+462.4%。2026 年两会明确提出深入整治"内卷式"竞争，行业 反内卷监管导向持续强化；广东省快递行业反内卷冷静期同步延续至 2026 年 5 月 31 日，淡季价格战风险显著受限， 行业竞争核心转向"稳价+提质"。监管底线清晰下，终端价格大幅下探概率低，叠加去年同期低基数，价格同比改善 将持续支撑企业利润兑现，低价件减少也将推动头部快递企业份额持续提升。京东物流四季度业绩表现亮眼，核心主 业一体化供应链业务增速大幅领跑行业，主要受益于利用专职配送运力扩大实时配送服务规模。重点关注中通快递， 同时持续看好极兔速递海外市场的高成长韧性。 物流：发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 07 日 油运价理论高度测算，突破封锁是 时间问 ...

| 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | USD | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of anti-involution regulations, which are expected to enhance the growth certainty of leading companies in the logistics sector. The focus is on improving compliance levels and optimizing algorithms within courier companies to balance interests among headquarters, franchisees, and couriers [2][4] - The report highlights that the adjustment of delivery fees in provinces like Sichuan aims to secure the income levels of frontline workers, while regulatory measures in grain-producing areas like Guangdong and Yiwu help maintain stable prices. The pressure from social security compliance provides cost support for courier prices, limiting the risk of price declines [2][4] - The advancement of e-commerce value-added tax is accelerating the industry's process of eliminating inefficiencies, with low-efficiency practices like fake orders rapidly declining. This environment favors leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to see increases in market share, profitability, and valuation [5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The report indicates that the national postal work meeting in 2026 will focus on comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition, marking a shift from "end correction" to "system reconstruction" in industry regulation [4] - The report notes that the anti-involution regulations are becoming a consensus in the industry, with a strong emphasis on compliance transformation for courier companies [4] Market Dynamics - The report states that the courier business volume growth rate has improved, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% as of March 1, 2026. The volume of postal courier collected during the Spring Festival period increased by 13.2% year-on-year [7] - The air freight market is showing resilience, with air freight price indices reflecting strong demand during the off-peak season, particularly for high-tech products [7] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to benefit from the favorable regulatory environment and market dynamics [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the express delivery industry, focusing on major players such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu. The market dynamics, pricing strategies, and competitive landscape are key themes throughout the conversation. Key Points and Arguments Pricing Strategies - The pricing for express delivery services has remained stable, with a reference price of 12.55 for 100 grams and 15 for standard services, indicating no significant changes compared to previous years [2][4][10]. - There is a slight increase of about 0.05 in actual prices, but overall market prices have not fluctuated significantly [2][4]. - The price differences among major companies have narrowed, with the gap between Zhongtong and Yuantong being approximately 0.04, indicating a more competitive pricing environment [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The market share of major players has seen fluctuations, with Zhongtong and Yuantong experiencing a decline in market share, while Shentong and Yunda have gained ground [11][12]. - The overall market volume has decreased by approximately 6 to 8 million packages, particularly in regions like Guangxi and Zhejiang, but there has been a recovery in volume post-festival periods [19][20]. - The express delivery market is expected to stabilize during the off-peak season from March to May, with no drastic price changes anticipated [26][30]. Service Quality and Competition - Service quality is a critical factor influencing pricing and market share. Companies with better service reputations, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, maintain higher prices, while those with lower service quality face pressure to reduce prices [7][9][14]. - The narrowing price gap suggests that lower-tier companies are improving their service quality, which is contributing to a more balanced competitive landscape [7][14]. Regulatory Environment - There are indications of regulatory pressures affecting pricing strategies, particularly in regions like Yiwu, where local authorities resist price increases to support local businesses [31][32]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards maintaining stable pricing to avoid penalties from headquarters for not meeting service standards [27][28]. Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a positive outlook for profitability, with expectations of improved margins as companies adapt to market conditions and enhance service quality [39][41]. - There is a consensus that while market share may fluctuate, the overall profitability for leading companies is expected to remain strong, driven by operational efficiencies and strategic pricing [39][41]. Additional Important Insights - The conversation highlights the importance of maintaining a balance between competitive pricing and service quality, as companies navigate the complexities of market demands and regulatory frameworks [9][14][37]. - The potential for further price adjustments exists, particularly if service quality disparities between leading and trailing companies persist [16][36]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the express delivery industry's current state and future prospects.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2026年3月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02057 | 說明 | A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the transportation sector, but highlights specific companies and segments with positive outlooks, such as logistics and aviation [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The transportation index increased by 3.3% in the last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.2%, with the shipping sector showing the highest growth at 11.9% [1][11]. - In the express delivery segment, some companies are benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a focus on leading firms like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2]. - The logistics sector is expected to improve as chemical product prices rise, with a focus on companies like Milkyway and Hongchuan Wisdom [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight numbers but remains optimistic about ticket prices and profitability due to high passenger load factors [3][55]. - The shipping sector is positively impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly in oil transportation, with expectations of price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is seeing a stabilization in container shipping rates, while oil transportation rates are expected to rise due to geopolitical factors [4][21]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1044.57 points, down 4.0% week-on-week and down 20.8% year-on-year [21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in this segment [4][37]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China increased by 17.58% year-on-year, with domestic flights showing a similar growth rate [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $72.48 per barrel, with domestic aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 4.3% week-on-week [66]. - Airlines are expected to benefit from improved load factors and ticket pricing, with specific recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [3][55]. Logistics - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to improve as chemical prices rise, with a focus on companies like Milkyway and Hongchuan Wisdom [2]. - The overall logistics environment is supported by a stable demand for chemical products, with operational rates for key chemicals showing positive trends [2]. Road and Rail - The road transport sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in truck traffic, although there was a significant drop in traffic volume recently [84]. - The railway sector is also experiencing a positive trend, with passenger turnover increasing by 8.52% year-on-year [82].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The military strike by the US against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have profound impacts on the global oil transportation market, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased oil transportation costs [3][15] - Tesla's Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, has been launched, marking a significant step towards the original dedicated era of Robotaxi services [3][17] - A strategic partnership between Youjia Innovation, Didi, and Wall Street Technology aims to advance the large-scale deployment of driverless logistics vehicles, filling a market gap for vehicle-grade autonomous logistics [3][32] - The pre-sale ticket prices for economy class flights during the 2026 Spring Festival have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating stable industry performance as demand is released [3][34] - Uber has launched the Uber Air service supported by Joby, integrating ground and air travel booking, which validates the commercial viability of eVTOL [3][41] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic air freight flights have seen a decline [4][44] - The shipping and port sector has experienced an increase in domestic shipping rates, while dry bulk freight rates have also risen [4][52] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume and a 0.70% increase in revenue as of December 2025 [4] - The average number of international flights operated daily in the last week of February 2026 was 1992.86, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 19.22% [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways decreased by 40.04% from February 9 to February 15 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly oil transportation, dry bulk, and container shipping due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [5] - Consider investments in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter and monitoring Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the travel sector driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [5] - Look into international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Pay attention to investment opportunities in the highway sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and other major expressway companies [5]