[Table_Title] 【 广 发 交 运 & 海 外 】 中 通 快 递 -W(02057.HK/ ZTO.N) 业绩稳健增长，股东回报提升 核心观点：（如无特殊说明，本报告货币单位均为人民币，1RMB= 0.145USD=1.135HKD） 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | | 44,281 | 49,099 | 55,682 | 60,366 | 63,955 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 15.3% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 5.9% | | EBITDA | | 13,951 | 10,479 | 16,477 | 17,985 | 19,421 | | 归母净利润 | | 8,817 | 9,081 | 10,834 | 12,181 | 13,222 | | 增长率（ ） | % | 0.8% | 3.0% | 19.3% | 12.4% ...

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2026 年 03 月 24 日 中通快递-W (02057) ——业绩稳健增长，承诺股东回报率不低于 50% 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 2% 22% 42% 03/24 04/24 05/24 06/24 07/24 08/24 09/24 10/24 11/24 12/24 01/24 02/24 HSCEI 中通快递-W | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 190.00 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8307.82 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 200.00/123.70 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,462.81 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 763.70 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8811 | 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresear ...

上 市 公 司 交通运输 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 190.00 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8307.82 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 200.00/123.70 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,462.81 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 763.70 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8811 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -18% 2% 22% 42% 03/24 04/24 05/24 06/24 07/24 08/24 09/24 10/24 11/24 12/24 01/24 02/24 HSCEI 中通快递-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 2026 年 03 月 24 日 中通快递-W (02057) ——业绩稳健增长，承诺股东回报率不低于 50% 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresear ...

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.Individual in ...

Investors with an interest in Transportation - Services stocks have likely encountered both ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) . But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank favo ...

证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-23 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 中通快递 交通运输 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价（港元） | 193.80 | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股） | 7.70 / 7.70 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） | 1492 / 1492 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 200.00 / 121.75 | | 资产负债率(%) | 26.2% | | 市盈率 | 14.8 | | 第一大股东 | Zto Lms Holding | | | Limited | 研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 中通快递 (2057.HK) 量升价稳业绩稳健，提升股东回报显价值 ⚫ 中通快递公布 2025 年经营业绩 中通快递公布 2025 年经营业绩，全年营业收入 491.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

1-2 月，社零总额同比+2.8%（4Q25：同比+1.6%），商品零售额同比+2.5% （4Q25：同比+0.3%），增速较 4Q25 均有改善。线上消费明显走强，1-2 月，网上商品零售额（原"实物商品网上零售额"）同比+10.3%，较 4Q25 （同比+2.3%）快 8pct，或因年货节对线上消费拉动效应变强，网上商品零 售额中，吃类/穿类/用类分别+20.7%/+18.0%/+4.7%。1-2 月网上零售额占 社会消费品零售总额的比重为 24.2%，同比+1.6pct，较电商旺季 4Q25 （29.1%）有所下滑。 证券研究报告 交通运输 看好电商快递盈利修复 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 动态点评 看好电商快递盈利修复，首选量价均受益的龙头 1-2 月，年货节拉动线上消费，网上商品零售额同比+10.3%，较 4Q25（同 比+2.3%）明显加速。快递层面，件量稳健增长，行业和企业端价格环比均 稳中有升，反内卷成果维持较好。往后展望，在社保推进预期、合规经营监 管要求下，"产粮区"淡季有望挺价甚至涨价，电商快递板块盈利或超预期， 首选量、价均相对受益、长期胜率高的中通快递、圆通速 ...

中通快递-W（2057.HK） 2025 年四季报及 2025 年业绩点评 龙头优势扩大，股东回报增强 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 22 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 49,099 | 56,948 | 62,001 | 66,285 | | 增长率（%） | 10.9 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | | 归母净利润 | 9,081 | 11,365 | 12,918 | 13,984 | | 增长率（%） | 3.0 | 25.2 | 13.7 | 8.3 | | EPS | 11.79 | 14.76 | 16.78 | 18.16 | | P/E | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | | P/B | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 中通快递-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中通快递-W (2057 HK/ZTO US) 4Q 快递价格上涨+市场份额提升 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 21 日│中国香港/美国 仓储物流 中通快递公布 2025 年业绩：营收 491 亿元，同比+10.9%；归母净利 90.8 亿元，同比+3.0%，基本符合我们的预期 89.8 亿元；调整后归母净利 93.6 亿元，同比-7.2%。调整后利润同比下滑主因 1H25 价格战拖累，自 2H25 以来，公司盈利环比显著回升主要受益于"反内卷"政策下的快递价格上涨。 其中，4Q25 调整后归母净利 26.3 亿，同环比-1.6%/+5.4%。同时，公司宣 布年末每股派息 0.39 美元，对应分红率 40%。展望 26 年，我们预计"反 内卷"政策仍将持续，公司件量及单票收入同比有望上涨，推升盈利，维持 "买入"。 进一步增强股东回报，现金分红+股份回购 根据公司公告，自 2026 年起，公司目标年度股东回报总额比例不低于上一 财年调整后净利润的 50%，包括现金股息及股份回购。其中，股份回购方 面，自 2026 年 3 月 20 日至 2028 年 3 月 20 日，公司将 ...