❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 股东回报&回购：公司在公告中表示派发半年度股息 0.39 美元/股；自 2024 年 3 月起，中通一直维持每半年派发一次股息的政策，分派率不低于上一年调整 后净利润的 40%；从 2026 年起，本公司目标年度股东回报总额比例不低于上 一财年调整后净利润的 50%。新回购计划：未来两年回购不超过 15 亿美元。 ❖ 投资建议：我们在 3 月 14 日发布公司深度中通快递：电商快递步入新阶段， 中通料享龙头红利——大物流时代系列研究（三十）。 我们认为电商快递行业正步入高质量发展新阶段，在反内卷式竞争持续推进 的背景下，行业价格将保持稳定，同时头部快递企业的市场份额有望进一步提 升，中通作为行业龙头，有望在新阶段中进一步体现"规模为基、质效并举" 的龙头价值。 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 ...

-21% -13% -5% 2% 10% 18% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 反内卷红利逐步释放，长期龙头价值凸显 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司点评 / 2026.03.19 | 投资评级:买入(维持) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-03-18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 196.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.64 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.70 | 最近 12 月市场表现 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至》 2025-11-27 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 44,281 | 49 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 亿元 若剔除所得税返还的影响，根据我们测算，Q4 单票调整后净利润环比 Q3 提 升约 0.033 元）。25 年全年累计调整后净利润 95.1 亿元，同比下滑 6.3%，单 票调整后净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下滑 17.2%，降幅约 0.05 元。 业务量：25Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件，同比增长 9.2%，超过行业增速 4.2 个 pct，Q4 公司市场份额 19.6%，同比提升 0.8 个 pct，环比 25Q3 提升 0.2 个 pct。 25 年全年完成包裹量 385.2 亿件，同比+13.3%，实现市占率 19.4%，同比持 平。2025 年散件业务量持续提升，25Q4 实现日均 980 万件，同比增长超 38%。 单票收入：25Q4 单 ...

2026 年 3 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业/公司点评 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,025 | 0.61 | 1.54 | | 恒生国企 | 8,836 | 0.10 | -0.88 | | 恒生科技 | 5,108 | 0.01 | -7.39 | | 上证综指 | 4,063 | 0.32 | 2.37 | | 深证综指 | 2,681 | 0.97 | 5.92 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,346 | 2.02 | 4.47 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,225 | -1.63 | -3.82 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,625 | -1.36 | -3.23 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,152 | -1.46 | -4.69 | | 德国 DAX | 23,502 | -0.96 | -4.03 | | 法国 CAC | 7,970 ...

18 March 2026 | 7:55PM HKT Equity Research ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) 4Q25 review: Strong 2026 volume and profit growth outlook; Upsized shareholder return policy; Buy Key Data _____________________________________ | | | | Market cap: $19.6bn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Enterprise value: $17.5bn 3m ADTV: $47.9mn | | | | | | China Ecommerce & Logistics | China | | | | | | M&A Rank: 3 | | | | Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | | | | GS Forecast __________________________________ | | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue increased by 12.3% to CNY 14.5 billion, while for the full year, it rose by 10.9% to CNY 49.1 billion [15] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was CNY 2.7 billion, and for the full year, it reached CNY 9.5 billion [15] - Gross profit declined by 2.1% to CNY 3.7 billion for Q4 and by 10.5% to CNY 12.3 billion for the full year [18] - Operating cash flow surged by 50.6% to CNY 4.2 billion in Q4 and reached CNY 12 billion for the year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual retail parcel volume grew by 46% year-over-year, with daily retail volume reaching close to 10 million parcels in Q4 [8] - The average selling price (ASP) for the core express delivery business increased by 2.9% in Q4, driven by a positive contribution from an improved mix in key account volume [15] - Total cost of revenue for Q4 was CNY 10.8 billion, increasing by 18.2%, while for the full year, it was CNY 36.8 billion, up by 20.5% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The express delivery industry in China achieved a steady growth of 13.6% in 2025, with parcel volume reaching 200 billion [5] - ZTO's market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points, maintaining a steady market share year-over-year [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ZTO is committed to a high-quality development strategy, focusing on service quality, operational efficiency, and maintaining a healthy competitive environment [7][9] - The company plans to optimize network policies and incentive mechanisms to ensure steady volume growth and improved cost efficiency [10] - ZTO aims to integrate service quality, market share, and reasonable profit as part of its long-term strategy [11] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the express delivery industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with a focus on both quantity and quality [9][11] - The company anticipates parcel volume growth for 2026 to be between 10%-13% year-over-year, indicating a commitment to outperform the industry average [19] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable and rational competitive order in the industry [30] Other Important Information - ZTO announced a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS and a new $1.5 billion share buyback program [20] - The company is advancing its digital transformation and integrating AI technology across its operations to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on anti-involution initiatives and pricing trends - Management stated that the competitive landscape has improved since the introduction of the anti-involution policy, with parcel prices recovering and a focus on safeguarding frontline interests [23] - The industry is expected to transition from volume-driven growth to a focus on high-quality development, with ZTO guiding for growth faster than the industry average [24][25] Question: 2026 priorities and AI applications - ZTO's priority for 2026 is to integrate service quality, market share, and reasonable profit, with a focus on optimizing network policies [30] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve customer service [39][41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, total revenue increased by 12.3% to CNY 14.5 billion, while for the full year, it rose by 10.9% to CNY 49.1 billion [14] - Adjusted net income for Q4 was CNY 2.69 billion, and for the full year, it reached CNY 9.5 billion [5][14] - Gross profit declined by 2.1% to CNY 3.7 billion for Q4 and by 10.5% to CNY 12.3 billion for the full year [17] - Operating cash flow surged by 50.6% to CNY 4.2 billion in Q4 and reached CNY 12 billion for the year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual retail parcel volume grew by 46% year-over-year, significantly outpacing overall e-commerce parcel growth [7] - The average selling price (ASP) for the core express delivery business increased by 2.9% in Q4, driven by a positive contribution from higher value services [14] - The combined unit cost for sorting and transportation decreased by 4.5% in Q4 and by 8.8% for the year, reflecting improved operational efficiencies [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The express delivery industry in China achieved a steady growth of 13.6% in 2025, with total parcel volume reaching 200 billion [5] - ZTO's parcel volume reached 10.56 billion in Q4, an increase of 9.2% year-over-year, with market share expanding by 0.8 percentage points [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ZTO is committed to a high-quality development strategy, focusing on service quality, operational efficiency, and maintaining a healthy competitive environment [6][9] - The company plans to optimize network policies and incentive mechanisms to ensure steady volume growth and improved cost efficiency [10] - ZTO aims to lead the industry in transitioning from a volume-driven model to one focused on quality and value [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the express delivery industry is entering a stable growth stage, with expectations of 10%-13% parcel volume growth in 2026 [18] - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining a fair and transparent network policy to protect the interests of partners and couriers [31] - Management acknowledged ongoing market uncertainties but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate through cycles and seize long-term opportunities [9][11] Other Important Information - ZTO announced a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.39 per ADS and a new $1.5 billion share buyback program [19] - The company is enhancing its shareholder return program, targeting an aggregate annual return ratio of no less than 50% of adjusted net income [19] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Updates on anti-involution initiatives and pricing trends - Management indicated that the competitive landscape has improved since the introduction of anti-involution policies, with parcel prices recovering and a focus on safeguarding frontline interests [23][24] Question: Industry growth outlook and competition landscape - The industry is expected to transition to a high-quality development phase, with ZTO anticipating growth faster than the industry average [24][25] Question: 2026 priorities under anti-involution scheme - ZTO's focus will be on integrating service quality, market share, and reasonable profit, with a commitment to maintaining a steady and rational competitive order [29][30] Question: Recent issuance of convertible bonds and AI applications - The company issued $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure, while also advancing digital transformation through AI applications across its operations [36][38]

Core Insights - The company is focused on the development of transcript-related projects, indicating a commitment to enhancing their offerings in this area [1] Group 1 - The company publishes thousands of quarterly earnings calls each quarter, showcasing significant growth and expansion in their coverage [1]

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黃沁先生 Herman YU先生 謝芳女士 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 董事名單及其角色和職能 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）成員載列如下。 執行董事 賴梅松先生 （主席） 王吉雷先生 胡紅群先生 非執行董事 劉星先生 許迪女士 獨立非執行董事 1 董事會下設四個董事委員會。下表提供本公司各董事於該等委員會中所擔任職務 的資料。 | | 審計 | 薪酬 | 提名及 | 環境、 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 董事 | 委員會 | 委員會 | 公司治理 | 社會及 | | | | | 委員會 | 治理委員會 | | 賴梅松先生 | | | | | | 王吉雷先生 | | | | M | | 胡紅群先生 | | | | M | | 劉星先生 | M | M | | | | 許迪女士 | | | | | | 黃沁先生 | M | M | C | M | | Herman YU先生 | C | | M | | | 謝芳女士 ...