Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

1-2 月，社零总额同比+2.8%（4Q25：同比+1.6%），商品零售额同比+2.5% （4Q25：同比+0.3%），增速较 4Q25 均有改善。线上消费明显走强，1-2 月，网上商品零售额（原"实物商品网上零售额"）同比+10.3%，较 4Q25 （同比+2.3%）快 8pct，或因年货节对线上消费拉动效应变强，网上商品零 售额中，吃类/穿类/用类分别+20.7%/+18.0%/+4.7%。1-2 月网上零售额占 社会消费品零售总额的比重为 24.2%，同比+1.6pct，较电商旺季 4Q25 （29.1%）有所下滑。 证券研究报告 交通运输 看好电商快递盈利修复 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 动态点评 看好电商快递盈利修复，首选量价均受益的龙头 1-2 月，年货节拉动线上消费，网上商品零售额同比+10.3%，较 4Q25（同 比+2.3%）明显加速。快递层面，件量稳健增长，行业和企业端价格环比均 稳中有升，反内卷成果维持较好。往后展望，在社保推进预期、合规经营监 管要求下，"产粮区"淡季有望挺价甚至涨价，电商快递板块盈利或超预期， 首选量、价均相对受益、长期胜率高的中通快递、圆通速 ...

中通快递-W（2057.HK） 2025 年四季报及 2025 年业绩点评 龙头优势扩大，股东回报增强 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 22 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 49,099 | 56,948 | 62,001 | 66,285 | | 增长率（%） | 10.9 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | | 归母净利润 | 9,081 | 11,365 | 12,918 | 13,984 | | 增长率（%） | 3.0 | 25.2 | 13.7 | 8.3 | | EPS | 11.79 | 14.76 | 16.78 | 18.16 | | P/E | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | | P/B | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 中通快递-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中通快递-W (2057 HK/ZTO US) 4Q 快递价格上涨+市场份额提升 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 21 日│中国香港/美国 仓储物流 中通快递公布 2025 年业绩：营收 491 亿元，同比+10.9%；归母净利 90.8 亿元，同比+3.0%，基本符合我们的预期 89.8 亿元；调整后归母净利 93.6 亿元，同比-7.2%。调整后利润同比下滑主因 1H25 价格战拖累，自 2H25 以来，公司盈利环比显著回升主要受益于"反内卷"政策下的快递价格上涨。 其中，4Q25 调整后归母净利 26.3 亿，同环比-1.6%/+5.4%。同时，公司宣 布年末每股派息 0.39 美元，对应分红率 40%。展望 26 年，我们预计"反 内卷"政策仍将持续，公司件量及单票收入同比有望上涨，推升盈利，维持 "买入"。 进一步增强股东回报，现金分红+股份回购 根据公司公告，自 2026 年起，公司目标年度股东回报总额比例不低于上一 财年调整后净利润的 50%，包括现金股息及股份回购。其中，股份回购方 面，自 2026 年 3 月 20 日至 2028 年 3 月 20 日，公司将 ...

2026 年 03 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 匡培钦 S0350525120001 kuangpq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦梦鸽 S0350526010003 qinmg@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 龙头份额及盈利优势凸显，大幅强化股东回报 ——中通快递-W（02057）2025 年业绩点评 最近一年走势 2026 年 3 月 18 日，中通快递发布 2025 年全年业绩公告：2025 年全年 实现营业收入 490.99 亿元，同比+10.9%，调整后净利润 95.13 亿元， 同比-6.3%；其中，2025Q4 实现营业收入 145.11 亿元，同比+12.3%， 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比-1.4%。 投资要点: | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中通快递-W | -0.2% | 16.3% | 23.5% | | 恒生指数 | -4.3% | -1.6% | 4.4% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/03/20 | | 当 ...

五年前我们问"谁会是最终赢家"，如今战局变了吗？ 作者/毕中臣 2025年，"十四五"规划收官之年，现代物流在复杂多变的发展环境中顶住压力，以14.3万亿元总收入、4.1%同比增速的答卷，印证了其作为生产性服务业 支柱的不可替代性。 展望未来，行业正逐步从规模扩张期进入质效提升期——结构优化、动力转换成为主线。而在这轮变革中，零担快运企业竞争格局发生了翻天覆地的变 化：头部企业逐渐从"价格战"转向"AI赋能"。 2021年曾发文《研判：零担快运龙头之战开演，谁会是最终赢家》，站在"十五五"前夕回望，战局已然生变。本文将复盘零担快运关键事件，探寻行业下 一个破局点。 01 行业格局：从百家争鸣到三足鼎立 一、市场规模：持续增长的万亿蓝海 根据国家统计局数据，2025年我国货运量达587亿吨，同比增速3.2%。按照货物运输工具不同分为公路、水运、铁路、民航四种，其中公路货运量高达 432.9亿吨，占比货运市场73.7%，同比增速3.4%，公路货运市场份额巨大，可以孕育多家千亿级市值物流企业。 按照运输货物的重量公斤段对公路货运市场进一步拆分为：快递-快运-整车，按照收入排序，快递<快运<整车，中国公路货运呈"金字 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨航空货运与物流 [Table_Title] 快递反内卷进入第二阶段，权益保障重塑行业定 价 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 3 月以来，快递行业对于整治"内卷式"竞争的重视度进一步提高，快递"反内卷"进 入第二阶段。本轮"反内卷"不同点在于：1）保障小哥权益是本轮"反内卷"治理的重点。首 先，司法部明确将通过立法手段着力化解"内卷式"竞争；其次，行政监管持续加码，各省派 费开启上涨；2）预期之外的电商税，驱动行业集中度提升。当前快递板块 26 年 PE 估值 11- 12X，盈利改善确定性高，胜率赔率皆具吸引力，关注 25Q4 和 26Q1 业绩验证期。重点推荐 龙头中通、圆通，有望实现量价齐升，龙头估值溢价有望修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Tabl ...

韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 3 月以来，快递行业对于整治"内卷式"竞争的重视度进一步提高，快递"反内卷"进 入第二阶段。本轮"反内卷"不同点在于：1）保障小哥权益是本轮"反内卷"治理的重点。首 先，司法部明确将通过立法手段着力化解"内卷式"竞争；其次，行政监管持续加码，各省派 费开启上涨；2）预期之外的电商税，驱动行业集中度提升。当前快递板块 26 年 PE 估值 11- 12X，盈利改善确定性高，胜率赔率皆具吸引力，关注 25Q4 和 26Q1 业绩验证期。重点推荐 龙头中通、圆通，有望实现量价齐升，龙头估值溢价有望修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨航空货运与物流 [Table_Title] 快递反内卷进入第二阶段，权益保障重塑行业定 价 报告要点 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 航空货运与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while balancing volume and quality, showcasing its leading value in the industry [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from the high-quality development phase of the e-commerce express delivery industry, with stable pricing and increased market share for leading companies [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was CNY 2.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.26, down by CNY 0.03 [1] - For the full year 2025, adjusted net profit totaled CNY 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.25, down 17.2% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 10.56 billion packages in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 4.2 percentage points [1] - The total package volume for 2025 reached 38.52 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 19.4% [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2025, the average revenue per ticket was CNY 1.35, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, primarily due to price increases for direct customers [2] - The average cost per ticket in Q4 2025 was CNY 1.01, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, while transportation costs decreased by 8.9% [2] - The company expects to achieve a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion in 2026, representing a growth of 10% to 13% [2] Shareholder Returns - ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.39 per share, maintaining a policy of distributing dividends at least 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit [2] - The company plans to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion in shares over the next two years [2] Future Projections - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2026 to be CNY 11.05 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 [4] - The target price for ZTO Express is set at HKD 242, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 196.40 [5]

-21% -13% -5% 2% 10% 18% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 反内卷红利逐步释放，长期龙头价值凸显 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司点评 / 2026.03.19 | 投资评级:买入(维持) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-03-18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 196.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.64 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.70 | 最近 12 月市场表现 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至》 2025-11-27 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 44,281 | 49 ...