摩根士丹利：中国经济年中展望-叙事改善，现实严峻

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in the economic narrative despite ongoing challenges in real estate and consumption [1][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariff reductions have eased some external pressures, the underlying deflationary cycle remains entrenched, with nominal GDP growth expected to stay low at around 3.5-3.6% over the next two years [1][46]. - It anticipates a gradual policy response, with potential fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1 trillion RMB aimed at infrastructure and urban renewal projects, alongside expected interest rate cuts by the central bank [2][34]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.9% in 2023, declining to 3.6% in 2025, while actual GDP growth is expected to be 5.4% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2025 [6]. - Household consumption is forecasted to grow at 4.9% in 2025, supported by government subsidies and policy measures [10]. Policy Measures - The report suggests that the urgency for new incremental policies has decreased, with a focus on utilizing existing policy space and fiscal tools to stimulate the economy [2][34]. - It predicts that the government will implement a supplementary budget of 0.5-1 trillion RMB in Q4 2025 to support key sectors [34]. Inflation and Deflation - The GDP deflator is expected to decline by -0.9% in 2025, indicating persistent deflationary pressures, with PPI deflation and low CPI inflation continuing [46][49]. - The report emphasizes that despite tariff reductions, the overall economic environment remains challenging, with structural issues limiting rapid recovery [9][46]. Trade and Tariffs - The report maintains that U.S. tariffs on China will remain at 30% over the forecast period, which is expected to dampen export growth significantly [20][21]. - It anticipates that China's export growth will drop to 0% in 2025, with a potential rebound to 3.5% in 2026 as tariff impacts lessen [20][23]. Sectoral Insights - Government consumption is projected to rebound significantly, with growth rates expected to rise from 1.4% in 2023 to 7% in 2025, driven by debt restructuring policies [11]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain strong growth, with a forecasted increase from 9.1% in 2023 to over 10% in 2025 [14].