高盛：核能-能源转型的核能方案

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for the nuclear energy sector, with 14 stocks identified as having strong leverage to the nuclear energy opportunity, including Cameco, Mirion Technologies, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Southern Company, all rated as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Insights - Nuclear energy is positioned for significant growth due to increasing demand for reliable and clean electricity sources, with a COP28 declaration aiming to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 [6][11]. - The current global nuclear fleet consists of approximately 440 reactors, expected to expand to around 500 by 2030, with over 400 additional reactors planned or proposed in the coming decades [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the broad opportunities across the nuclear value chain, including materials, technologies, and services, driven by renewed investment and policy support [6][11]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Energy Overview - Nuclear energy has been a proven technology since the 1950s, but its growth has been inconsistent due to policy shifts and public perception [6][25]. - The global nuclear power generation mix has declined from 17% in the 1980s to approximately 9% in 2023, with the U.S. maintaining around 18% [28][29]. Current Drivers of Demand - Key drivers for renewed nuclear demand include increasing power consumption, a shift towards cleaner energy sources, and the need for baseload power to complement intermittent renewable sources [16][19]. - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for traditional nuclear is estimated at ~$125/MWh, while Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could achieve LCOE of ~$100/MWh or less once fully developed [19][21]. Investment and Policy Support - Global investment in nuclear power generation has grown at a CAGR of ~14% from 2020 to 2024, driven by improving policy support and the need for less emission-intensive alternatives [44]. - At COP28, 31 countries pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by 2050, supported by major energy users and financial institutions [60][61]. Future Outlook - The report projects that by 2040, nuclear generating capacity will grow to 575 GW globally, increasing its share of the electricity mix from ~9% to over 12% [55][56]. - There are currently 61 reactors under construction, with 59 expected to come online between 2025 and 2032, alongside a robust pipeline of planned and proposed reactors [47][48].