Variety View Stock Index Futures - On May 23, the three major A-share indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to close at 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to close at 10132.41 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.18% to close at 2021.50 points. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1155.6 billion yuan, an increase of 52.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index pulled back and closed at 3882.27, a decrease of 31.39 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 23, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1384.0 yuan, a decrease of 25.5 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 802.3 yuan, a decrease of 32.9 from the previous day [2]. Factors Affecting Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Some enterprises' production declined slightly due to maintenance. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakened, and steel prices fell. Steel mills mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand, and the overall procurement enthusiasm was average. The first round of price cuts for coke by steel mills was implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and coke enterprises' profits shrank [3]. - Coking coal: This week, some coal mines stopped or reduced production due to accidents. After the first - round price cut of coke, coal prices still have room to fall in the short term. Some previously shut - down or reduced - production coal mines resumed production, and coal mine output increased. Pit - mouth orders decreased, and coal mine inventory accumulated. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 770 - 800 yuan/ton [3]. Soybean Meal - International market: The soybean harvest progress in Argentina has passed 60%. The sowing and emergence indicators of US soybeans are better than normal levels. However, the weak export demand and unmet biodiesel policy expectations may limit the upward space of US soybean prices. Domestic market: On May 23, the M2509 main contract closed at 2652 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. With the increase in soybean arrivals, soybean inventory continued to rise, and the national oil mill operating rate increased significantly. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly. The price upward space of soybean meal is restricted [3]. Live Pigs - On May 23, the main 2509 contract of live pigs closed at 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The consumption demand did not meet expectations. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased, so the live pig futures price may fluctuate weakly [4]. Cotton - On the night of May 23, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13400 yuan/ton. On May 26, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the national cotton trading market was at least 660 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 50 lots compared with the previous day [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main price of Shanghai copper maintains a volatile trend, with an operating range of 77400 - 78800 yuan/ton. If it can break through the pressure level near 78500 yuan/ton, the upward space may open; otherwise, there is great pressure at key points such as 79490 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - On May 23, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.24%, closing at 718 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment of iron ore increased significantly, the arrival volume continued to decrease, and the port inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand is under seasonal weakening pressure, and the molten iron output has declined for two consecutive periods. Iron ore shows a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On May 23, the 2507 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.37%, closing at 3516 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume increased month - on - month. In June, the asphalt production volume of local refineries will increase year - on - year and month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season, the terminal demand may be suppressed. Asphalt shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On May 23, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 776.5, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 777.5, and closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The port log inventory has dropped to a three - month low. The overall demand is still weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction. The spot price is weak [6]. Steel - Currently, the macro news is relatively calm. The market refocuses on the supply - demand fundamentals. In the short term, the demand has declined but still maintains a certain resilience. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, with the arrival of the rainy season, the steel price may face downward pressure in the medium term [7]. Alumina - The import of domestic bauxite has increased significantly. The supply of alumina may increase slightly, and the demand remains stable. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to the industry limit, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand of some downstream aluminum processing enterprises has weakened, and the inventory may accumulate slightly if the seasonal consumption weakens [9].
国新国证期货早报-20250526
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-26 00:54