2025年5月19日-2025年5月25日周报：4月经济展现韧性，5到7月的经济走势决定政策节奏-20250526

Economic Performance - In April 2025, retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March but up from 3.5% last year[1] - Essential consumer goods saw stable growth, with the appliance sector benefiting from subsidy policies, raising its market share to 14.4%[1] - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.5% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.2% and infrastructure investment at 9.6%[2] - Real estate investment declined by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the housing market[2] Policy Implications - The economic resilience observed in April is significantly supported by policy factors, and future consumer subsidy reductions could impact retail sales negatively[1] - The People's Bank of China lowered the one-year and five-year LPR to 3% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a shift towards easing monetary policy[3] - The economic trajectory from May to July will be crucial in determining whether additional policy support is needed in the second half of the year[3] Market Trends - The REITs market showed a rebound, with the CSI REITs Index increasing by 1.19% as of May 23, outperforming other indices[4] - Average daily trading volume in the REITs market rose by 23.04% week-on-week, indicating improved liquidity[9]