渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.26）-20250526

Group 1: Macro Environment - The global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the May Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMI preliminary values exceeding expectations, indicating an overall expansion trend. However, inflationary pressures are still rising, as evidenced by the University of Michigan's inflation expectations reaching a historical high [3] - In Europe, the May composite PMI unexpectedly contracted due to service sector weakness, highlighting the need for early interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy amidst political turmoil and weak domestic demand [4] Group 2: Domestic Environment - In April, despite external challenges, the domestic economy remained stable under supportive macro policies, with new growth drivers becoming increasingly significant. The "export grab" trend is expected to continue under eased US-China tariffs, but consumer and investment sectors require substantial policy support to solidify the current situation [4] - Fiscal data for January to April shows a narrowing decline in national public budget revenue, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue continues to decline. Public budget expenditure has progressed faster than the same period last year, focusing on livelihood areas [4] Group 3: High-Frequency Data - In the real estate sector, transaction volumes have rebounded, while wholesale prices for agricultural products have shown a downward trend. Midstream sectors like steel and cement have seen price declines, and upstream prices for coking coal and coke have weakened slightly, with non-ferrous metal prices remaining stable [4] Group 4: Fixed Income Research - The period from May 16 to May 22 saw a mixed performance in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4 basis points to 1.72%. The market is characterized by a lack of new information, leading to a cautious outlook on bond yields [6][7] - The issuance of special bonds has increased marginally, with a total of 109 interest rate bonds issued during the period, amounting to a net financing of 633.9 billion yuan [6]