铅锌日评：区间整理-20250526

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages, some secondary lead smelters are reducing production, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, the zinc market has strong supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro - sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots on May 26, 2025, was 16,650 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 16,860 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1] - The Shanghai lead basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 51,462 lots, up 19.73%; the open interest was 47,379 lots, up 4.59% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 1.53%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, down 0.47% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.75%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 36.7%, down 0.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 72.66%, flat [1] - On May 22, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 22.37 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 139,160 lots, an increase of 759 lots [1] - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production has decreased significantly due to rising raw material costs and limited supply. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is weak [1] Zinc Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots on May 26, 2025, was 22,640 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day; the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [1] - The Shanghai zinc basis was 425 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 127,189 lots, up 54.61%; the open interest was 114,069 lots, up 91.20% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,712.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.19, down 1.36% [1] Supply and Demand - From May 17 to May 23, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.03%, up 1.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 56.41%, down 2.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 62.03%, down 0.38 percentage points [1] - As of May 23, the zinc concentrate port inventory was 35.8 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons from the previous week [1] - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and the zinc ore processing fee is rising. The supply is increasing, while demand from die - cast zinc alloy and zinc oxide industries is weak [1]