信用周观察系列：3-5年城投债如何布局？

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From May 19 - 23, interest - rate bonds fluctuated, while credit bonds continued to strengthen with declining yields and narrowing credit spreads. 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds, showed advantages [1][9]. - In May, the net financing of credit bonds was negative and decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by urban investment bonds. However, the issuance interest rate declined overall, with a larger decline in the short - to - medium - term [2][10]. - The 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have significant coupon cost - effectiveness, large stock scale, and room for credit spread compression [2][14][15]. - For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to select high - cost - effective individual bonds through two ideas: high excess spread and steep yield curve [3][18]. - For bank capital bonds, a strategy combining short - duration downgrading and long - duration investment in large banks is relatively advantageous [5][25]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Continues to be Negative, Seeking Returns in Medium - to - Long - Term - Net financing may be negative for three consecutive months. From May 1 - 25, 2025, the issuance was 181.5 billion yuan, the maturity was 252.5 billion yuan, and the net financing deficit expanded to 71 billion yuan [28]. - The primary market issuance sentiment continued to recover, with the proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times increasing by 9 percentage points to 73%. The issuance interest rate continued to decline, with 1 - year - within, 1 - 3 - year, 3 - 5 - year, and over - 5 - year rates decreasing by 13bp, 12bp, 3bp, and 9bp respectively compared to April [2][10][28]. - In the secondary market, yields declined across the board, and spreads continued to compress. The market is looking for returns in the medium - to - long - term, and 3 - 5 - year bonds have become more active in trading [31][33]. 2. Industrial Bonds: Buying Sentiment Recovers, and Trading Continues to Extend Duration - In the primary market, the issuance scale increased slightly year - on - year, but the net financing decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, and the issuance period was concentrated within 1 year. The issuance interest rate of bonds within 3 years declined, while that of bonds over 3 years increased [36]. - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment recovered, and trading continued to extend duration. The proportion of trading over 5 years increased from 9% to 13%, while the proportion within 1 year decreased from 31% to 24% [9]. 3. Bank Capital Bonds: Medium - to - Long - Duration Secondary Capital Bonds Perform Well - In the primary market, from May 19 - 23, 2025, some banks issued 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds [42]. - In the secondary market, the yields of bank capital bonds generally declined by 1 - 9bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - to - long - duration secondary capital bonds performed well [4][5][42].