越南房地产供应增加的具体信号

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nam Long Investment Corporation and Khang Dien House is "Buy" while Vinhomes Joint Stock Company is rated "Neutral" [25]. Core Insights - The residential sector in Vietnam is expected to rebound in 2025 due to fast-tracked approvals and increased supply from developers, which will help ease pent-up demand and improve affordability [1]. - The government is streamlining administrative structures and decentralizing planning, which is anticipated to create a more stable and transparent development pipeline [1]. - Significant new housing supply is expected in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and surrounding provinces, with up to 20,000 units projected to launch in 2025 [2]. - Vinhomes is pursuing an ambitious suburban expansion strategy, planning to launch seven projects in 2025 with a pre-sales target of D150-200 trillion [3]. - Competitive pressures are rising in the market, particularly for mid-sized developers, but Nam Long is less concerned as larger developers may help raise baseline prices [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The residential sector is set for a rebound in 2025, driven by increased supply and regulatory changes [1]. - HCMC is expected to see a significant increase in housing supply, with major projects like Eco Retreat and The Global City contributing to this growth [2]. Company Strategies - Vinhomes is focusing on suburban developments, with a major project in Long An planned to deliver over 30,000 residential units [2]. - Nam Long plans to launch multiple projects in the second half of the year, including Waterpoint and Izumi [4]. Valuation and Price Targets - Nam Long's price target is based on RNAV and implies a valuation of 1.7x 2025E P/BV [12]. - Vinhomes has a price target of D65,000 based on a 7x forward PE target multiple, reflecting a 40% discount to RNAV [13].