Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]
长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250526
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-26 02:05