碳酸锂周报：供大于求延续，价格上方承压-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply is stable with an expected increase in South American imports, while short - term demand growth is slower than supply. The price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, and a high - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Side - In April, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 9% month - on - month. This week, production decreased by 795 tons to 15,048 tons. In March, production increased by 24% month - on - month to 78,730 tons. Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. In March, China imported 534,500 tons of lithium ore, a 6% month - on - month decrease, and 18,100 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers [4] Demand Side - In May, the overall production schedule is expected to be flat month - on - month. In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a 0.03% month - on - month decrease and a 49.0% year - on - year increase. Exports were 22.3GWh, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease and a 64.2% year - on - year increase. Sales were 118.1GWh, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 73.5% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons to 34,543 tons, market inventory increased by 560 tons, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 851 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - Supply is stable with expected high South American imports. Demand is good but affected by the US tariff policy. The short - term demand growth is slower than supply, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain under pressure. A high - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts and cathode material production schedules [5] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the average price of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and related products; production and inventory data of lithium carbonate, power batteries, and cathode materials; and import data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over different time periods (weekly, monthly, and yearly) [7][8][11]