长江期货棉纺产业周报：临近6月国际局势博弈，上行遇压-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than 214 million tons in the same period last year and 163 million tons in 2023. The 09 contract is relatively strong. However, the new - cotton supply in 2001 contract is expected to be abundant, with an estimated output of 7.5 billion tons, which limits the price increase. In the short - to - medium term, the upside of cotton prices is restricted. Near June, international situation games and potential setbacks in Sino - US negotiations in July and August may cause price drops. The future cotton price increase is affected by the macro - situation. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, cotton prices may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15000 - 15100. If the negotiation fails, prices will fall further. It is recommended to conduct hedging at the rebound high this year to prevent instability [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year due to factors such as limited quotas, reduced imported cotton, and high monthly consumption. The 09 contract is strong, while the 01 contract is restricted by the expected abundant new - cotton supply. Short - to - medium - term price increases are limited, and the future price trend depends on Sino - US negotiation results and the macro - situation [3]. 3.2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated. The downstream industry's rigid demand has resilience, with no significant decline in the downstream operating rate and low finished - product inventory. However, the long - term downstream demand expectation is weak, and there is no strong driving force for cotton price increases. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand [5]. - The table shows the prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of cotton and related products, including cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, US cotton futures, etc. [6] 3.3. Macroeconomic Situation - In April, China's economy maintained stable growth. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service industry production index rose by 6%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and after excluding real - estate development investment, it increased by 8%. The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to April, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. - China's latest LPR decreased. The 1 - year LPR dropped to 3%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped to 3.5%, both by 10 basis points. The six major state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks lowered RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 5 to 25 basis points for current, time, and notice deposits. The large - certificate deposit interest rates of many state - owned banks also decreased, with some terms dropping by up to 35 basis points. Beijing and Shanghai lowered mortgage interest rates by 10 basis points following the LPR cut. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May improved slightly to 49.2, but the service industry PMI unexpectedly dropped significantly to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months, dragging the composite PMI down from 50.4 in April to 49.5. The economic activity in France has contracted for 9 consecutive months, and the service industry activities in Germany and France have declined. The money market has increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite trade - policy uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - In April, China exported 124 tons of cotton, a 64.9% decrease from the previous month and a 97.7% decrease from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export was 2193 tons, a 72.0% decrease from the same period last year. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to August 2025), the cumulative export was 12000 tons, a 22.3% increase from the same period last year. In April 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 29400 tons, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month but an 8.42% increase from the same period last year, ranking the highest among the same - period exports in the past five years. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn in China was 114700 tons, a 27.25% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative export value was 450 million US dollars, a 14.53% increase from the same period last year. - In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 108.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year but a 12.26% decrease from the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase from the same period last year. - As of the beginning of May, the new - cotton harvest in Brazil in 2025 had not started, and the total production forecast remained at a high level of 3.95 billion tons. In April 2025, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, basically the same as the previous month. Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh were the main buyers. In this season (from August 2024 to July 2025), the cumulative export volume was 2.383 billion tons, remaining at a historical high level. As of the beginning of May, the processing and inspection of cotton in Brazil in 2024 (corresponding to the USDA 2024/25 season) had been completed. The sales progress was 94%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The sowing progress of new cotton in 2025 (corresponding to the USDA 2025/26 season) was 100%, and the pre - sale progress was 59%. - Affected by tariff panic in April, the textile and clothing exports in Pakistan decreased briefly. In April 2025, the export value of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.221 billion US dollars, a 1.35% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.64% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton yarn was 14,000 tons, a 28.27% decrease from the same period last year and a 35.42% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton cloth was 234 million tons, a 7.31% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.27% decrease from the previous month [12]. 3.5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years. Consumption will increase year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The reduction in the ending inventory in the new season is limited, and it will still be at the second - highest level in the past five years. - In the 2024/25 season, the global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the consumption expectation is slightly increased, with the increase in consumption greater than that in supply. The ending inventory this season will decrease slightly. The global cotton production is expected to be 26.36 billion tons, a 390,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.1%. The global consumption is expected to be 25.404 billion tons, a 143,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.6%. The global ending inventory is 17.071 billion tons, a 99,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, a decrease of 0.6% [13]. 3.6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory and production are the same as last month. As of March, China's cumulative imported cotton was 820,000 tons. Due to factors such as tight import quotas and a significant narrowing of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the import volume is reduced by 500,000 tons to 1.25 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 14.91 billion tons. In terms of total demand, in April, affected by Trump's tariff increase, the orders of textile enterprises decreased, but the operating rate remained high, and the cotton consumption was maintained at a high level. In May, production and sales slowed down, but the overall consumption situation was good. After China and the US reached a consensus, the export expectation of textile and clothing improved, and the cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.81 billion tons. - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory is reduced by 1.1 billion tons to 6.7 billion tons. In terms of production, affected by factors such as the prominent cotton - planting income advantage in Xinjiang, the cotton - sowing area increases slightly, and the total output increases by 600,000 tons to 6.79 billion tons. In terms of imports, after the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a consensus, the import volume remains at 1.6 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 15.09 billion tons. In terms of total demand, after the Sino - US consensus, the long - term export expectation of textile and clothing to the US improves, and the domestic demand market will remain stable under loose monetary policies and consumption - promotion measures. The cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.74 billion tons [17]. 3.7. US Cotton Exports - From May 9th to May 15th, the net signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2024/25 season was 32,069 tons (including 34,723 tons of signing and 2654 tons of cancellation of previous signing), a 16% increase from the previous week and a 41% increase from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 57,039 tons, a 24% decrease from the previous week and a 27% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing volume of Pima cotton this season was 2200 tons, a 91% increase from the previous week, and the shipment volume was 1724 tons, a 21% decrease from the previous week. The signing volume of new - season upland cotton was 1678 tons, and there was no signing of new - season Pima cotton. - In the same week, China's net signing volume of upland cotton this season was 3016 tons (3039 tons of new signing and 23 tons of cancellation of previous signing), and the shipment volume was 1519 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. There was no signing or shipment of Pima cotton [21]. 3.8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of April, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 billion tons, a decrease of 687,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 14.20%, and 183,300 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 4.29%. - At the end of April, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton - textile enterprises showed a slightly decreasing trend. As of the end of April, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2884 billion tons, a decrease of 7300 tons from the end of last month. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 billion tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons from the same period last year and a decrease of 692,100 tons from the previous month [24]. 3.9. US Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in West Texas was sunny and hot, with the highest daytime temperature between 35 - 37°C. The soil - moisture evaporation rate accelerated, and this weather pattern will continue. Although there is no overall drought in the region, the bottom - layer soil moisture is still insufficient. However, it is expected that the probability of thunderstorms will increase in this region with the arrival of a cold air mass this weekend, and the expected precipitation is between 6 - 19mm. Therefore, cotton farmers in the High Plains region are seizing the time to complete sowing as much as possible before the rain. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in this region changed from cloudy to sunny, and the temperature was close to the seasonal level, with the highest daytime temperature around 27°C. Currently, the wet soil in the local area is gradually drying, and the sowing operation is resuming. The soil moisture content in the Delta region is close to saturation, and the local area urgently needs a period of sunny and warm weather to improve the growth conditions of cotton plants and allow cotton farmers to complete the sowing operation [27]. 3.10. Xinjiang Region - On the 23rd, there was light rain (snow in high - altitude areas) in some areas of the western part of Northern Xinjiang, Tacheng region, Tianshan Mountains, western mountainous areas of Southern Xinjiang, the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, and northern mountainous areas of Hami. Among them, there was moderate to heavy rain in some local areas of the Ili River Valley, western mountainous areas of Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and southern mountainous areas of Kashgar. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the northern part of Tacheng region, western part of Altay region, Urumqi, Changji Prefecture, and northern part of Hami. Among them, the wind force in the Laofengkou and Mayitas wind areas of Tacheng region, the Naohai wind area of Altay region, and the Wulapo and Hongyanchi wind areas of Urumqi reached level 7 - 8, with gusts of level 9. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the Southern Xinjiang Basin, with gusts of level 7, accompanied by varying degrees of sand - dust weather. - From the 23rd to the 25th, there is a high possibility of short - term heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, gales, hail and other severe convective weather in some local areas of the mountainous areas of the Ili River Valley, Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, southern mountainous areas of Tacheng region, mountainous areas of Changji Prefecture, and northern mountainous areas of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. Precautions should be taken against severe convective weather, mountain floods and geological disasters. - In the next three days, the strong winds in the wind gaps of Northern and Eastern Xinjiang and the sand - dust weather in Southern Xinjiang will have an adverse impact on tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry, and transportation. Precautions should be strengthened [29][31]. 3.11. Warehouse Receipts and Non - Commercial Positions - As of May 23rd in the 2024/25 season, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,359, with 327 valid forecasts, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,686, a decrease of 227 from the previous week. - As of May 13th, the net long position of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market was - 22,396 contracts, a decrease of 7850 from the previous week. The net long position of non - commercial futures only was - 17,543 contracts, a decrease of 7467. The net long position of the commodity - index fund was 60,702 contracts, an increase of 682 [34]. 3.12. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Basis - This week, cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and cotton - yarn prices fluctuated. - The current cotton basis is 1198 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan from the previous week. - The current cotton - yarn basis is 870 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous week [38]. 3.13. Domestic - Foreign Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Differences - The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has narrowed.