固定收益市场周观察：存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The time point for the certificate of deposit (CD) interest rate to return to a downward trend may be earlier than market expectations. Despite the existence of factors such as increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts, and the end - of - June factor that cause marginal tightening pressure on the capital market, the market has made preparations. The outflow of bank deposits due to rate cuts may increase the demand for CD allocation, and the CD issuance rhythm and bank behavior also support the earlier return of CD rates to a downward trend. If so, it will also bring a repair opportunity for the bond market interest rate to decline steeply [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market concerns about the upward risk of CD interest rates have resurfaced, mainly due to increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts increasing bank liability pressure, and the end - of - June factor. However, the market has prepared, and the CD interest rate may return to a downward trend earlier than expected [4][7]. - Deposit rate cuts may lead to bank deposit outflows, but the funds are likely to enter fixed - income asset management products, increasing CD allocation demand and potentially pushing CD rates down [4][7]. - From the perspective of CD issuance rhythm, if banks expect tight funds at the beginning of the year and increase CD financing, the CD rate may decline earlier when facing the end - of - June factor [4][8]. - Bank behavior shows that the slowdown in the expansion pressure of inter - bank liabilities relative to assets helps stabilize CD rates [4][8]. 2 Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for May, the US will release the core PCE for April, and the eurozone will release the industrial sentiment index for May [17][18]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Scale Estimation - This week, it is expected to issue 328.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, 39 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 228.2 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - based financial bonds is expected to be around 100 billion yuan [18]. 3 Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank's reverse repurchase volume increased, with a total injection of 946 billion yuan, and the MLF roll - over was 500 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan in the open market after considering maturities. The capital market interest rate fluctuated more, with the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase falling, and the overnight proportion averaging around 87%. The capital interest rate declined but still had large intraday fluctuations [23][24]. - The CD issuance scale rebounded, and the interest rate increased. From May 19th to May 25th, the issuance scale was 714.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 738.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24 billion yuan. The issuance and interest rates of different types of banks and different maturities also changed [30][31]. 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Rise After Exhausting Positive Factors - Last week, long - term interest rates mainly rose, while medium - and short - term interest rates continued to decline slightly. Factors included large intraday fluctuations in capital interest rates, strong profit - taking sentiment after the dual cuts, and a significant increase in the issuance price of ultra - long - term primary treasury bonds. On May 23rd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.2bp, - 0.9bp, - 1.0bp, - 1.6bp, and 3.3bp respectively compared to the previous week [40]. 4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates declined, such as the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt operating rate, while the PTA operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel production in early May decreased year - on - year [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained positive, land trading volume increased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 7.2% and 0.2% respectively [49]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, coal prices diverged, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the middle reaches also declined. Vegetable and fruit prices in the downstream consumption sector declined slightly, while pork prices remained flat [50].