五矿期货农产品早报-20250526

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. The new - year US soybeans may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise while domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has support from low inventories in some regions, but if the production continues to recover rapidly, the oil price will still be under pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - The sugar market may face a weakening trend as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [15][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates [18][19]. - The egg market is under pressure with increasing supply, and a bearish view is maintained on near - month contracts [21][22]. - The short - term trend of the pig market is restricted, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [24][25]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - Market Situation: US soybeans closed down on Friday due to concerns about exports. The weather in the US soybean - growing areas has disturbances, which may affect sowing. The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuates slightly, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing [2][3]. - Supply Forecast: According to MYSTEEL, the estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume last week was 2.21 million tons, and it is expected to be 2.25 million tons this week [2]. - Trading Strategy: For the 09 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors have been fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - Market Situation: Malaysian palm oil production has increased, and exports show different trends in different periods. The domestic spot basis of oils has a slight downward trend [6][12]. - Trading Strategy: The oils market is expected to be volatile. Bearish factors include the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy. Bullish factors are the low inventories in some regions [13]. Sugar - Market Situation: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The number of ships waiting to load sugar and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports decreased [15]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar supply situation has eased, and domestic imports are expected to increase, so the sugar price is likely to weaken [16]. Cotton - Market Situation: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The downstream operating rates decreased slightly, and the cotton inventory decreased slightly [18]. - Trading Strategy: Due to positive macro - news and a small decrease in downstream operating rates, the cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and may fill the upper gap [19]. Eggs - Market Situation: The domestic egg price first fell and then stabilized over the weekend, with some areas rising. The supply of newly - laying hens continues to increase, and the demand is mostly stable [21]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds for near - month contracts such as 06 and 07, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts such as 09 [22]. Pigs - Market Situation: The domestic pig price mostly rose over the weekend, with some areas having a resurgence of secondary fattening and a cautious attitude from the breeding side [24]. - Trading Strategy: Do not go long in the short - term, and there is no need to chase short positions recently. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rebounds in the future [25].