Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. The month - on - month increase in palm oil production in the producing areas narrowed, showing a moderate growth trend. The export demand increased month - on - month, and it was in a stage of both supply and demand growth. It was expected that the inventory in May would increase. The domestic palm oil inventory stopped falling and increased, and the tight pattern was alleviated. Market news said that the US biodiesel exemption might reduce the consumption of oils and fats, which had an overall negative impact. [3][6] - Macroscopically, Trump agreed to resume the window period of trade negotiations with the EU, the risk - aversion sentiment might ease, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the oil price continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased moderately, the export demand increased slightly month - on - month, and it was expected that the inventory in May would continue to rise. At the same time, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy still existed. The fluctuation range of the market decreased, and the subsequent trend should be monitored. In general, palm oil might fluctuate in the short term. [3][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 0.3 to 49.22 cents per pound, with a gain of 0.61%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 13 to 3825 ringgit per ton, with a gain of 0.34%. The DCE palm oil contract rose 22 to 8006 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.28%. The DCE soybean oil contract rose 20 to 7774 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.26%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 114 to 9391 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.23%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 50 to 8600 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.58%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 to 8030 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 160 to 9610 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.69%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 232 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan from the previous period. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1617 yuan per ton, up 94 yuan from the previous period. [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.72%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.38%, and the production increased by 3.72%. UOB estimated that the production from May 1 - 20 would decrease by 1% to increase by 3%. MPOA data showed that the production increased by 3.51%. [7] - Export: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products was 741,560 tons, a 5.3% increase. According to SGS data, the export volume was expected to be 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase. According to Amspec, the export volume was 720,422 tons, a 1.55% increase. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the 9.5% export tariff range. [7][8] - Import: In April 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to April, China's soybean oil import volume was 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. In April, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume was 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase. [8] - Policy impact: The US government planned to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which would reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel. It was expected that the US biodiesel production would decrease by nearly 4.6 million tons, and the consumption of about 5 million tons of oil raw materials would be reduced. If the exemption period lasted for 3 years, the annual consumption of biodiesel made from oils and fats in the US would decrease by nearly 1.6 million tons in the future. [9] - Inventory: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8085 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from the previous week and 160,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 656,300 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 204,500 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 359,700 tons, an increase of 22,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 39,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 403,900 tons from the same period last year. [9] - Transaction volume: As of the week of May 23, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 36,420 tons, compared with 11,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly trading volume of palm oil was 504 tons, compared with 531 tons in the previous week. [9] Industry News - MPOC stated that the price of crude palm oil in May was expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. It was expected that the global vegetable oil demand from June to September would be beneficial to palm oil, limiting the further decline of prices. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs was expected to increase the import volume and might reduce the import demand for soybean oil. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil had narrowed to $51. Due to the high - base effect, the production from May to September was expected to only increase moderately. The sluggish export performance in March and April led to an increase in inventory. The export of Malaysian palm oil to Sub - Saharan Africa increased by 24% in the first four months of 2025, and the export to ASEAN increased by 8%, but the export to other regions decreased. The production of US biodiesel decreased, and the consumption of major biodiesel raw materials also decreased sharply. [11][12] - The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Eddy Martono said that increasing the special export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10% would weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil products in the global market. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance decided to increase the special export tax on palm oil from 7.5% to 10% from May 17, 2025. [12] Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the spot - futures spreads of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils. [13][14][15]
棕榈油周报：增库周期过程，棕榈油延续震荡-20250526
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-26 02:12