Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After two weeks of weak oscillations, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. The increase in the oil mill operating rate and the expected increase in supply have been fully factored into the market. Concerns about potential production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain and the possible delay of the sowing progress in the US Midwest due to heavy rain on the 20th have boosted market sentiment. Additionally, the forecast of dry weather during the US soybean growing season has attracted long - position funds, adding a weather premium to the market [4][7]. - The expected production cut in Argentina due to storms and the short - term heavy rain in the US soybean - growing areas have limited impacts. Attention should be paid to the weather changes during the growing season, and the US soybean market is in a volatile range. With the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the spot prices, which continue to decline. However, the long - position sentiment in the futures market has improved, strengthening the support at the lower level. Overall, after the rebound, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean July contract rose 9.75 to 1060.75 cents per bushel, a 0.93% increase. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract rose 53 to 2952 yuan per ton, an 1.83% increase. The South China soybean meal spot price fell 120 to 2940 yuan per ton, a 3.92% decrease. The CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 43 to 2556 yuan per ton, a 1.71% increase. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 2.53% increase [4][5][7]. - The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 12 to 446 dollars per ton, a 2.76% increase, and that of US Gulf soybeans increased by 6 to 463 dollars per ton, a 1.31% increase. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased by 40.6 to 43.13 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, and the emergence rate was 34%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 21.8 tons, lower than the market expectation. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 30.8 tons. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 2248 tons [8][9]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.94 dollars per bushel. The 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 98.9%, and the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 74.3% [9][10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 586.83 tons, an increase of 51.92 tons from the previous week, and the national port soybean inventory was 683.6 tons, an increase of 60.2 tons from the previous week. The oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 12.17 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous week [10]. - As of the week of May 23, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal trading volume was 39.344 tons, and the daily average pick - up volume was 17.934 tons. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 220.93 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 5.73 days [10]. Industry News - Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of May, with a daily average export volume 11.34% higher than that of May last year [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast was adjusted to 1.697 billion tons, the soybean export volume forecast was slightly reduced to 1.082 billion tons, and the soybean crushing volume forecast was 57.5 million tons [12][13]. - Due to recent storms, the 2024/25 soybean crop in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, may suffer "significant losses", and there are still 730,000 hectares of soybean crops not harvested [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained the forecast of the US 2025/26 soybean production at 117 million tons, but the long - term summer weather outlook is not optimistic, and the soil moisture in the central soybean belt is a major risk factor [15]. - The US government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which may reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel and cause a nearly 5 - million - ton decline in the US oil industry's consumption [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the freight rate, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvest progress, the US soybean's cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean's weekly net sales volume and export volume, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the soybean meal's weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume and operating rate, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days [17][19][22][23]
豆粕周报：多头情绪回暖，连粕止跌反弹-20250526
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-26 02:10