沥青：原油反弹，去库支撑

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the asphalt market, with the core view that the asphalt market is influenced by factors such as crude oil price rebound and inventory changes. The trend strength of asphalt is rated 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On May 25, 2025, the closing price of BU2506 was 3,532 yuan/ton, down 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 3,535 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The closing price of BU2507 was 3,516 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 3,521 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,580 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refinery operating rate was 29.21%, down 1.67% from the previous period, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.31%, down 0.33% from the previous period [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 06) was 93 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 16 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Production: From May 16 - 22, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 507,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons or 7.1% from the previous week, but an increase of 45,000 tons or 9.7% year - on - year. The cumulative output from January to May was 1.1499 billion tons, an increase of 43,000 tons or 3.9% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 878,000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% from May 19. The inventory of 104 domestic social warehouses was 1.876 million tons, an increase of 0.9% from May 19 [12].