棉花：震荡走势，缺乏驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Cotton shows a volatile trend with a lack of driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2509 closed at 13,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. Its trading volume was 173,996 lots, an increase of 8,451 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,814 lots, a decrease of 976 lots [1] - CY2507 closed at 19,650 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 19,620 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Its trading volume was 5,635 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,692 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE Cotton 07 closed at 66.06 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 11,359 sheets, a decrease of 50 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 327 sheets, a decrease of 21 sheets [1] - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 15 sheets, a decrease of 7 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0 sheets, an increase of 22 sheets [1] - Spot Price Data: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 14,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 14,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The international cotton index M was 74.88 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 800, and that of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29 - 31B with impurity within 3 was CF09+1300 - 1400. The freight for cotton shipped out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and trading could be maintained. Yarn prices were mainly stable, but the industry was skeptical about the sustainability of orders and overall confidence was not strong. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with obvious insufficient orders and average shipments. Weaving mills' quotations were stable, and actual orders could be negotiated according to quantity [2] - US Cotton: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar [3]