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长江期货饲料养殖产业周报-20250526
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-26 02:26
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Pig: Supply pressure is gradually being released, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. - Egg: Hen culling has accelerated, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. - Corn: The end of grass - roots grain sales has strengthened the support for the futures market. In the short - term, the spot price has support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the national spot price was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of pig 2509 was 13,515 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from last week; the 09 - contract basis was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from last week [4][50]. 3.1.2. Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the breeding profit declined and the production capacity was reduced, the overall reduction was limited. In May 2025, the planned slaughter volume of key provincial enterprises and large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month [4][50]. 3.1.3. Demand End - It is currently the off - season for consumption. With the hot weather, terminal consumption is mediocre, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate remains low. Although there is inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase in slaughter volume is limited due to the losses of slaughtering enterprises [4][50]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The weekly piglet price decreased slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased slightly [4][50]. 3.1.5. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. 3.1.6. Strategy Suggestion - Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound and then go short at high levels. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13,700 - 13,800, and the support level is lowered to 13,000 - 13,100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14,000 - 14,200, and the support level is 13,300 - 13,400. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract after a rebound [4][50]. Egg 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.28 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2507 closed at 2,966 yuan/500 kg, down 15 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 346 yuan/500 kg, 205 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [5][74]. 3.2.2. Supply End - The newly - opened laying hens in May corresponded to the chicks supplemented in January 2025, with a large number of new layers. Some breeding enterprises chose to cull hens, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the market supply was still relatively sufficient. In the long - term, the high number of chicks supplemented from February to April 2025 will lead to more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025 [5][74]. 3.2.3. Demand End - As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate terminal demand, but high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand for driving up egg prices is relatively limited [5][74]. 3.2.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. 3.2.5. Strategy Suggestion - Be cautious about short - chasing the 07 contract after June. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the 3,750 - 3,800 pressure level for the 08 contract. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [5][74]. Corn 3.3.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2507 closed at 2,327 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday [6][99]. 3.3.2. Supply End - As the price rises to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply increases. However, grass - roots grain sales are basically over, and traders are firm in their asking prices. The current inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of depletion, which supports the spot price. In April, corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [6][99]. 3.3.3. Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives up feed demand, but the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat has led to an increase in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, with a decline in the operating rate and limited incremental demand [6][99]. 3.3.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the reduction of grass - roots grain sources provides support for prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3.3.5. Strategy Suggestion - Take a moderately bullish view in the general direction. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2,300 - 2,360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage [6][99].