生猪：被动累库形成，趋势反套

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, and official piglet numbers confirm the stock. With weakening expectations, weak demand, and slaughter volume unable to support selling, prices have fallen more than expected, leading to passive inventory accumulation and a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, resulting in the far - month spread deviating from the seasonal reasonable spread. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - Futures Prices: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,205 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 13,515 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live pig 2507 contract is 5,872 lots, a decrease of 1,759 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,021 lots, a decrease of 758 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 25,562 lots, a decrease of 2,430 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,485 lots, a decrease of 178 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the live pig 2511 contract is 6,079 lots, an increase of 1,117 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 34,247 lots, an increase of 1,034 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The range of trend intensity values is an integer in the interval [- 2,2], where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The north - south spread of fattening pigs is inverted, group sales of piglets decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm the stock, expectations are weakening, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, and passive inventory accumulation occurs, leading to a possible switch in the positive spread structure. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout 7 - 1, 9 - 1, and 11 - 1 reverse spreads in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] - Spread Data: The basis of the live pig 2507 contract is 1,095 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 785 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the live pig 2511 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread is - 310 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 335 yuan/ton [3]