华联期货生猪周报：供需僵持，猪价区间震荡-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply and demand of the pig market are in a stalemate, and the pig price is in a narrow - range shock. The futures market trend depends highly on market sentiment. The supply and demand of the main 09 contract are expected to weaken, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view, with the pressure level referring to 13,800 [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental Views: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated narrowly this week, with the national average live pig slaughter price at 14.46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%. In the short term, the pig price is in a stalemate. The number of fertile sows decreased slightly in Q1 2025, but the production capacity is still sufficient. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upward space of the pig price before September 2025 may be limited. The supply of pork this year is relatively abundant, and the support from the supply and demand sides to the market is still relatively limited [7]. - Outlook and Strategy: The supply and demand expectations of the main 09 contract are weakening. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view, with the pressure level referring to 13,800 [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated narrowly this week. The national average live pig slaughter price was 14.46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.42%. The terminal consumption is weakening, but the second - fattening may enter the market to support, and the slaughter enterprises adopt a strategy of reducing volume to support prices [15]. - Spot - Futures Basis: Not provided in the content. - Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Spreads: The regional standard - fat price spreads rose and fell this week, with differences between the north and the south. The price of fat pigs in the north was inverted, and the price of standard pigs in the south drove up the price of fat pigs. However, as the weather gets hotter, the standard - fat price spread will continue to narrow [25]. - Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets this week was 510.48 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. The piglet market was stable on the surface but declined secretly, and the trading activity was low [29]. - Price of Culled Sows: The average price of culled sows this week was 10.97 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47% and a year - on - year increase of 2.24%. It is expected that the price of culled sows may be weakly stable next week [32]. 3.3. Production Capacity - Inventory of Fertile Sows: In late March 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.39 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.96% compared with late December 2024. According to the statistics of 208 sample enterprises, in April, the inventory of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.36% month - on - month and 4.31% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month and 10.15% year - on - year. It is expected that the inventory of fertile sows in May will be generally stable with minor adjustments [36][40]. - Elimination Volume of Fertile Sows: According to the statistics of 208 sample enterprises, in April, the elimination volume of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month and 3.08% year - on - year; the elimination volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 2.94% month - on - month and increased by 9.61% year - on - year. It is expected that the elimination volume in May will be difficult to increase [43]. 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of Commercial Pigs: In April, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 35.4824 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 6.28%; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4321 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91% and a year - on - year increase of 10.98%. It is expected that the inventory in May will continue to increase month - on - month [50]. - Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs: In April, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.8565 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.58%; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.497 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.09% and a year - on - year increase of 74.89%. It is expected that the slaughter volume in May will increase month - on - month [53]. - Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 124.13 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. It is expected that the average slaughter weight next week will be generally stable with a slight decrease [58]. 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume of Live Pigs: The terminal consumption is weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughter enterprises is at a high level, and the frozen - product storage rate is at a low level. The frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on the pig price is limited [67]. - Slaughter Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughter Enterprises: The slaughter rate of slaughter enterprises this week was 28.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. It is expected to continue to rise slightly next week [69]. 3.6. Cost and Profit - Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughter: This week, the average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 104.44 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 17.79 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 46.41 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10.28 yuan/head. The cost improvement could not effectively offset the decline in pig prices [82]. - Pig - Grain Ratio: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and stably next week [89].