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重视战略金属及底部能源金属配置价值,黄金维持增配
Changjiang Securities·2025-05-26 02:45

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Views - Short-term risk appetite reversal supports a strong rebound in gold prices, while the medium-term outlook continues to favor a recession and interest rate cuts, reinforcing bullish sentiment [2][6]. - The weakening US dollar, driven by a downgrade in the US credit rating, is expected to bolster commodity prices, while industrial metals are experiencing weak fluctuations due to suppressed demand expectations from China's April macro data [2][7]. - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are anticipated to undergo a value reassessment, with supply control measures enhancing their market position [8]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing allocations to gold stocks, which are currently at a cyclical low valuation, suggesting a buy on dips strategy [6]. - The recent US tariff announcements and credit rating downgrade have contributed to a favorable environment for gold, with expectations of continued central bank purchases [6]. Industrial Metals - Economic expectations are driving short-term fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices, with a long-term outlook supported by monetary easing [7]. - Recent data shows a decrease in copper and aluminum inventories, indicating potential supply constraints [7]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report highlights opportunities in strategic metals and energy metals, particularly lithium, which is currently in an oversold position [8]. - Supply disruptions in cobalt and nickel due to policy changes in resource-rich countries are expected to support price stability and potential increases [8].