限产预期到哪儿了？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report discusses the current expectations regarding production restrictions in the steel industry, highlighting the need for supply-side adjustments due to seasonal demand fluctuations and macroeconomic pressures [3][6] - It emphasizes the necessity of production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of a reduction in crude steel output across several provinces [5][6] - The report suggests that the steel sector is transitioning from a phase of undervaluation to a recovery phase, presenting a favorable investment opportunity for undervalued stocks [7][28] Summary by Sections Production Expectations - As the summer season approaches, demand for construction materials is expected to decline slightly, with a reported 4.63% year-on-year decrease in apparent consumption of major steel products [3] - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to 2.436 million tons, reflecting a downward trend in response to demand adjustments [3][4] - Inventory levels continue to decline, with a 2.20% decrease in major steel product inventories compared to the previous week [4] Production Cuts - Six provinces have indicated expectations for crude steel production cuts, totaling 24.41 million tons, which represents 6.4% of their projected 2024 output [5] - The report notes varying cutback percentages across provinces, with higher reductions in regions with fewer compliant steel enterprises [5] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing debate regarding the implementation of production cuts, with industry leaders acknowledging the necessity of managing steel output amid weak domestic demand and export challenges [6] - Despite pressures, steel profitability remains relatively stable, suggesting that the market may not yet feel the full impact of declining external demand [6] Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is viewed as a good entry point for investment, particularly in undervalued stocks that may benefit from potential production cuts and raw material price adjustments [7][28] - Specific companies are highlighted for their strong recovery potential, including Baosteel and other undervalued firms in the sector [28]