金融期货早班车-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the tariff talk results exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid repair of market risk appetite. The foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in Q2 are crucial. It's recommended to go long on IH and IF at low levels as the valuation of the broader market index is low, but there is a concentrated position risk in micro - cap stock index short positions [1] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term capital market is neutral to loose recently. After the "double cut", the interest rate curve tends to flatten. In the short term, treasury bond prices are at a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect treasury bond futures prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 23, the A - share four major stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to 10132.41 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.18% to 2021.5 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.02% to 980.58 points. Market trading volume was 1182.6 billion yuan, an increase of 42.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, automobiles (+0.42%), pharmaceutical biology (+0.42%), and basic chemicals (+0.05%) led the gains; computers (-1.97%), composites (-1.84%), and media (-1.79%) led the losses [1] - In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1106, 104, and 4200 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 7.6 billion, - 15.6 billion, - 3.6 billion, and +26.7 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +2.9 billion, - 0.8 billion, - 6 billion, and +3.9 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 209.68, 166.04, 73.47, and 47.05 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 21.88%, - 18.36%, - 11.83%, and - 10.84% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 2%, 2%, 2%, and 9% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 23, treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.371, a decrease of 266 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.523, a decrease of 164 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.639, an increase of 292 bps; the thirty - year bond was 1.975, a decrease of 24 bps [2] - In the open - market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 142.5 billion yuan, and currency withdrawal was 106.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 36 billion yuan [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment declined, while real - estate sentiment increased [10]