市场等待本周三会议结果，波幅缩小

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].