工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250526

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: May 26 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend Logic: Domestic southwest wet - season electricity price is expected to drop from 0.35 yuan/kWh to 0.28 yuan/kWh, potentially lowering marginal cost by 200 - 300 yuan/ton; in March, exports to Europe increased 38% month - on - month but the average price fell 23.76% year - on - year; AI report shows prices in a downward channel [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to supply - demand contradictions and high inventory, it is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Prices maintained a weak trend, and it was recommended to wait and see [11] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Prices maintain a weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, up 322 tons from the previous week, and at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuate weakly [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall, the cost support weakened as the ore price declined, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the market was oversupplied; the AI report shows prices in a downward channel [33] - Strategy Suggestion: Given the pessimistic market sentiment, prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to wait and see [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [36] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [37] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, down 3,228 tons from the previous week, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39] - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]