Soochow Securities·2025-05-26 02:53Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the bus sector, specifically favoring Yutong and King Long [3][4]. Core Insights - The driving factors for the current bus cycle indicate that the bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output. The overseas market is expected to contribute significantly to the bus industry, potentially creating a market equivalent to China within 3-5 years [2]. - The report highlights that the domestic price war has ended, which will not hinder growth but rather resonate positively with the market. The recovery in tourism and the demand for bus updates are expected to return to 2019 levels [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In April 2025, the overall production of the bus industry in China was 45,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -0% and -10% respectively. The wholesale volume for April was also 45,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% [9][10]. - The report notes that the sales of large and medium buses increased year-on-year, while export volumes also saw a rise [9]. Company Performance - Yutong is characterized as a "model student" with high growth and high dividend attributes, with projected net profits of 4.63 billion, 5.55 billion, and 6.75 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12%, 20%, and 22% respectively [4]. - King Long is noted for its rapid progress, with projected net profits of 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan for the same period, indicating substantial year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% respectively [4]. Export Dynamics - In April 2025, the export of large and medium buses reached 4,128 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 4% but a month-on-month decrease of 18% [45]. - The report indicates that the export market is concentrated among leading companies, with Yutong and King Long holding significant market shares in both bus types [54].