Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous value, better than the market expectation of 230,000[7] - The weekly Redbook retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, down from the previous 5.8%[11] - The New York Fed's weekly economic index was 1.90%, with a 13-week moving average of 2.35%[13] Market Sentiment - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) had a weekly moving average of 459, influenced by President Trump's proposed 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1[18] - The Fear and Greed Index remained in the 'Greed' zone, closing at 64 points[16] Global Market Overview - Global equity markets saw a weekly decline of 1.4%, with emerging markets down 0.1% and developed markets down 1.6%[22] - Gold prices increased by 5.3% over the week, while Bitcoin rose by 3.8%[22] U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.6%, while the tech giants (the "Seven") dropped by 2.8%[23] - Large-cap value stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, with large-cap value (Russell 1000 Value) down 2.6% and small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value) down 3.8%[23] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio (TTM) for the S&P 500 is 26, slightly above the 10-year average of 24.5, indicating a valuation percentile of 75.7%[24] - The highest valuation percentiles among the 11 sectors are Real Estate and Information Technology, both around 89%[24] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a barbell strategy, balancing investments in gold ETFs (GLD) to hedge against tariff uncertainties and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) for growth potential[3]
美股策略周报:无经济衰退,波动创造更舒适的介入机会-20250526