固定收益策略报告：三大长债市场一级招标接连“发飞”：是偶发，还是共性？

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]