Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider taking phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider short - selling small - and medium - cap indices on rallies due to high congestion and market instability [13]. - For Treasury bond futures, focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend [14]. - For the European container shipping route, the previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile, and long - term factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. - For cotton, the easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average [16][17]. - For sugar, the supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend, and international supply surplus may suppress long - term prices [18][20]. - For eggs, the consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. - For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended [22]. - For red dates, short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [24]. - For live pigs, the spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. - For crude oil, the long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor [27]. - For caustic soda, the market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions [28]. - For soda ash and glass, soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term [29]. - For asphalt, the futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. - For pulp, the short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally [33]. - For logs, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices [34]. - For urea, with the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35]. - For synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. - For lithium carbonate, the future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possibility of upstream production reduction [38]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts [39][40]. - For steel and iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand [41]. - For coking coal and coke, the fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [43]. - For ferroalloys, for ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation [45]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The National Internet Information Office and financial regulatory authorities have dealt with accounts and websites spreading false capital market information, conducting illegal stock recommendations, and hyping virtual currency trading [10]. - The State Council has reviewed and approved the Action Plan for Green and Low - Carbon Development of the Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2027), studied measures to improve the horizontal ecological protection compensation mechanism, and discussed the draft amendment to the Food Safety Law [10]. - US President Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1st and a 25% tariff on non - US - made products of mobile phone manufacturers [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that Trump's tariff threat aims to prompt the EU to act faster, and the US is expected to reach agreements with other countries within 90 days [11]. - Most banks' large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates are declining. A private bank may lower the interest rates of some deposit products on May 27th [11]. - Multiple provinces have strengthened the management of special bond funds, and the Ministry of Finance's regulatory bureau has made it a key management point [11]. - If Trump imposes a 50% tariff on the EU, Germany may lose about 200 billion euros by the end of his second term in 2028 [11]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange's report shows that the Chinese export container shipping market is improving, and the national economy is growing steadily. In April, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year [12]. - China and the Netherlands will communicate on semiconductor export control issues to maintain the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain [12]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsby believes that although the threshold for short - term interest rate cuts is "slightly high", rate cuts are possible in the next 10 - 16 months, and high tariffs are "terrible for the supply chain" [12]. Futures Markets Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and short - sell small - and medium - cap indices on rallies. The high congestion of small - cap indices and market instability have led to a decline. The previous policies have shown weak support for the domestic economic cycle, and the market may rest in the short term [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The strategy is to focus on the stock - bond seesaw logic and the steep curve trend. The bond market sentiment was affected by the MLF injection and bond issuance. The current contradiction in the bond market may be bond issuance, and the supply pressure affects the capital flow [14][15]. European Container Shipping Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and now the focus is on the implementation of the freight rate increase. The 08 contract may be volatile due to previous tariff sentiment and time lag. In the long term, factors such as trans - route rebalancing and demand need to be monitored [16]. Cotton - The easing of Sino - US tariff friction may stimulate short - term demand, but there are still pressures. The overall cotton market is technically pressured, and the price rebounds at a low level but is still below the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory digestion [16][17][18]. Sugar - The supply is currently abundant, but there are uncertainties in making up the production - demand gap. The price shows a volatile trend. International supply surplus may suppress long - term prices, and domestic supply is relatively loose but inventory is low. Attention should be paid to import supply [18][20][21]. Eggs - The consumption may improve before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound. However, the price is expected to face pressure in June due to large supply, quality problems, and lack of festival - driven consumption. It is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions [21][22]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The current situation of fruit setting in different regions is inconsistent, and the inventory is at a low level in the past six years. The price and sales volume are expected to be stable before the Dragon Boat Festival [22][24]. Red Dates - Short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market trading atmosphere has weakened after the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, and the supply is sufficient [24]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short near - month contracts. The supply side faces double negative factors of increased theoretical supply pressure and high inventory, and the demand side has a seasonal weakening expectation [25]. Crude Oil - The long - term price is in a downward trend, and it is expected to remain weak. OPEC + plans to increase production, and global economic weakness may affect demand. Short - term sanctions on Iran may cause a price rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient [25]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow the trend of crude oil. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profit, but weak shipping demand is a continuous influencing factor. The supply from Iran is a risk factor [27]. Caustic Soda - The market's future demand expectation is pessimistic, but the spot is currently strong. If alumina enterprises resume production, the demand may increase. It is advisable to gradually enter long positions. The spot price in Shandong is stable, and the futures price is currently at a discount [28]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is in the maintenance period, with supply expected to increase slightly, and the price is still weak. The downstream demand is stable. Glass demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly in the short term. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [29][30]. Asphalt - The futures price is expected to follow the decline of crude oil price and approach 3400 yuan, and the upper pressure is the same as that of crude oil. The price in Shandong increased slightly over the weekend, and the production of refineries is lower than expected [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - A volatile approach is recommended in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be awaited in the medium term. The price decline is affected by factors such as crude oil regression, restart of maintenance devices, and potential production cuts in downstream staple fibers. Attention should be paid to the change in the basis [32]. Pulp - The short - term supply - demand has no obvious contradiction, and the price may rebound due to tariff and replenishment demand. The future arrival volume is expected to change seasonally. The downstream construction has changed slightly, and cultural paper has issued price - increase notices [33]. Logs - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream construction and port inventory. Short - term call options can be sold for hedging, and long - term out - of - the - money call options can be bought at low prices. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term [34]. Urea - With the start of export inspection and the arrival of the agricultural demand season, the demand is expected to improve. The price of urea in the spot market is slightly declining, and the futures price is also falling. If the futures price further drops, long positions can be considered [35][36]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of butadiene has declined, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes, inventory, and downstream procurement sentiment [36]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum price is supported by low warehouse receipts and inventory, but it is expected to fluctuate due to trade negotiations and off - season expectations. Alumina supply is expected to balance in June, and long positions can be considered when the futures price is deeply discounted to the spot price [37]. Lithium Carbonate - The future demand of the finished product is restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The price decline may increase the possibility of upstream production reduction. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand change of the product itself [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling can be considered for far - month contracts. The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is affected by factors such as photovoltaic installation data and component production [39][40]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the long - term trend is weak due to strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the supply side has a certain reduction in iron - making molten iron production [41][42]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals have not changed substantially, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The steel - making blast furnace restart is basically in place, and the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the supply - demand of coke is basically balanced [43][44]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, short positions can take profit at low prices, and for silicomanganese, short positions can be held for observation. The current supply - demand of both has no obvious contradiction, and the cost of ferrosilicon is affected by electricity prices [45].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250526
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-05-26 03:27