长江期货市场交易指引-20250526

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the Short Term [5] - Rebar: Temporarily Observe [1][7] - Iron Ore: Oscillate Weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillate [1][9] - Copper: Cautious Trading within Range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observe [1][14] - Nickel: Observe or Short on Highs [1][15] - Tin: Range Trading [1][17] - Gold: Build Long Positions on Lows after Full Price Correction [1][19] - Silver: Range Trading [1][19] - PVC: Oscillate Weakly [1][22] - Soda Ash: Observe [1][31] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate Weakly [1][24] - Rubber: Oscillate Weakly [1][25] - Urea: Oscillate [1][28] - Methanol: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][29] - Plastic: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][30] - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and Rebound [1][33] - Apple: Oscillate [1][33] - PTA: Range Oscillation [1][35] - Live Pigs: Oscillate Weakly [1][37] - Eggs: Short on Highs [1][39] - Corn: High - Level Oscillation [1][40] - Soybean Meal: Cautiously Chase Highs, Go Long on Pullbacks [1][42] - Oils and Fats: Short on Highs [1][47] Core Views - The global market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals and macro - environmental impacts. For example, tariff issues bring uncertainties to the market, while supply - demand imbalances determine the price trends of commodities [5][22][37]. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Due to international tariff threats, domestic market rotation, and weak main - line driving forces, the stock index may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a defensive observation strategy [5]. - Treasury Bonds: After the issuance of a large amount of interest - rate bonds, the biggest negative factor in the market has been digested. With the clear attitude of monetary policy support, the bond market is expected to oscillate upwards [5]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction is gradually emerging as demand weakens seasonally and steel mills have no strong intention to cut production. With low - level valuation, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - Iron Ore: Although affected by some events, the overall supply is increasing, and demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to observe as the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [7]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices face downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. Coke also has supply - demand contradictions, and both are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Despite some weakening in fundamentals, low inventory still supports prices. The Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within the range [12]. - Aluminum: With the increase in alumina price and complex supply - demand situations, and the possible impact of trade negotiations on exports, it is recommended to observe [14]. - Nickel: The cost is firm, but there is an oversupply in the medium - long term. It is recommended to observe or short on highs as it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Tin: Supply recovery expectations and the impact of tariff policies on demand may increase price volatility. It is recommended to trade within the range [17]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, inflation data, and tariff policies, prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on lows after price corrections [19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, the price is in a weak position. Although there is short - term tariff relief, the impact on demand still exists. The price is expected to oscillate, and macro - news should be continuously monitored [22]. - Caustic Soda: In June, it may show a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and be shorted in the medium term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and downstream demand [24]. - Rubber: Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - Urea: Supply is stable, and demand is expected to be released. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to pressure and support levels [28]. - Methanol: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a wide range [29]. - Plastic: Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as downstream demand and policies [30]. - Soda Ash: Supply is still at a high level, but the expectation of maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is not optimistic. It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to short - term price drops and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Although global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an oscillating rebound in cotton prices [33]. - Apple: With the approach of the Dragon Boat Festival, low inventory supports prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. - PTA: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to oscillate within a range [34]. Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on highs at the resistance level, with attention paid to factors such as enterprise slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [37]. - Eggs: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to observe the 06 contract and short on highs for the 08 and 09 contracts [39]. - Corn: In the short term, there is support for prices due to reduced grassroots grain sources and positive market sentiment. In the long term, supply - demand tightens, but there are also factors such as policy release and substitute products. It is recommended to go long on lows within the range and pay attention to 7 - 9 positive spread opportunities [40]. - Soybean Meal: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply. In the long term, it may strengthen due to increased costs and weather disturbances. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs in the short term and go long on pullbacks after mid - June [42]. - Oils and Fats: In the short term, they are expected to oscillate within a range due to complex supply - demand factors. In the long term, they may decline in June and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to short on highs cautiously and pay attention to spread - widening strategies [47].