有色金属基础周报：宏观扰动减弱，有色金属继续震荡运行-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - disturbances are weakening, but the Sino - US game continues, and there is still a possibility of repetition in the tariff issue. The prices of non - ferrous metals continue to fluctuate. The fundamentals of different metals have different impacts on prices, and the prices of each metal are expected to show different trends in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Trend Status: High - level and strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 76000 - 79500 [3]. - Market Viewpoint: Mine - end disturbances continue, the cost pressure of smelters limits the downward space of prices, but the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared with April but was better than the same period. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating since May, and the spot premium has weakened, but the low - level inventory still supports the premium. The market demand is difficult to recover significantly at the end of the month, but there may be some inventory - building sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival. The fundamentals still support the copper price, and the Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the festival [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Interval trading, and pay attention to the position of near - month contracts [3]. 3.2 Aluminum - Trend Status: Continued strong - side oscillation [3]. - Market Viewpoint: The revocation of some mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has also increased. The demand of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the off - season is approaching. However, the unexpected de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and the 90 - day tariff window period promote export rush. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait - and - see [3]. 3.3 Zinc - Trend Status: Oscillation, with a price range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - Market Viewpoint: The supply of the mine end is loose, and the domestic inventory has decreased. However, the traditional consumption peak season of downstream has passed, and the consumption is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. If the inventory turns, the decline of zinc price may expand [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Interval trading [3]. 3.4 Lead - Trend Status: Overall strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 16600 - 17100 [3]. - Market Viewpoint: The supply and demand are both weak. The import decline has accelerated the de - stocking of domestic lead, but it is in the consumption off - season, and both smelters and battery enterprises are waiting and watching [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Interval trading [3]. 3.5 Nickel - Trend Status: Weak - side oscillation, with a price range of 122000 - 127000 for nickel and 12800 - 13200 for stainless steel [3]. - Market Viewpoint: The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the cost is firm, but the long - term supply of nickel is excessive. The profit of nickel - iron is in deficit, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate is flat [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Interval trading [3]. 3.6 Tin - Trend Status: Side - way oscillation, with a price range of 250,000 - 275,000 [4]. - Market Viewpoint: The supply has recovered, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The inventory is at a medium level, and the mine - end resumption expectation is strong. The US tariff policy suppresses the terminal demand of electronic products, and the price fluctuation is expected to increase [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Interval trading, and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon - Trend Status: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - Market Viewpoint: The weekly output and factory inventory have decreased, and the cost has decreased due to the decline in electricity prices and reducing agent prices. The start - up of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, and the enterprises in the southwest region will gradually resume production during the wet season, but are restricted by the low silicon price [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait - and - see [4]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - Trend Status: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - Market Viewpoint: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The supply is stable, but the short - term demand growth rate is lower than the supply. The import supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to continue the weak - side oscillation [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - selling at high prices, and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.9 Macro - economic Data - China: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, the real estate development investment continued to decline, and the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR both decreased by 10 basis points [13][14][15][16]. - US: In May, the Markit manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI were all better than expected and in an expansion state. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House of Representatives, and Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 [17][19][20]. - Eurozone: In May, the PMI unexpectedly shrank, and the service industry performance reached the worst level in 16 months [18].