贵金属日报：美对欧关税威胁提振黄金大涨-20250526

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and the short - term trend is strengthening. However, considering the high volatility of gold and the fact that the 90 - day tariff suspension observation period of peripheral economies has just entered the second half, it is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from the end of May to June. London gold has resistance at 3365, strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area, and support at 3300, 3200, and 3100. London silver has support at 33, strong support in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance at 33.7, and if it breaks through, it can reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but it may remain in high - level oscillations recently [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals showed a strong overall trend. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, the US tax cut bill was passed in the House of Representatives, and the instability of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially US President Trump's threat on the 23rd to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting from June 1, reignited risk - aversion sentiment. The surrounding US dollar index dropped significantly and fell below 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly, and the three major US stock indexes declined, reflecting the selling pressure under the triple - kill of US asset stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, which was conducive to the pursuit of safe - haven assets. The rapid rise of medium - and long - term Japanese bond yields may have a depreciation effect on the US dollar and an impact on tariff trade negotiations. Currently, there are deep differences among the US and its major allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and political factors are complex. Therefore, the risk - aversion demand under trade tariffs may still appear intermittently [2]. 3.2. Capital and Inventory - Fund Holdings: Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.73 tons to 922.46 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 302.6 tons to 14217.5 tons. Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC holdings report as of May 20, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 2772 contracts to 163981 contracts, with long positions slightly decreasing by 129 contracts and short positions decreasing by 2901 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver increased by 2288 contracts to 50042 contracts, with long positions increasing by 2947 contracts and short positions increasing by 659 contracts [3]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 4.13 tons to 1206.45 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 170.1 tons to 15449 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 9 kg to 17.25 tons, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 73.6 tons to 960.64 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of May 16) decreased by 91.86 tons to 1482.5 tons [3]. 3.3. This Week's Focus - This week, in terms of data, focus on the US April PCE data and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on Friday evening. The US is closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the domestic night session is closed on Friday for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. In terms of events, at 02:40 on Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a graduation speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony; at 21:00, European Central Bank President Lagarde will give a speech at the Hertie School in Berlin. At 08:00 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting [4]. 3.4. Price and Inventory Tables - Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 780.1 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD is at 775.72 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract is at 3357.7 US dollars/ounce, etc. [5]. - Inventory and Holdings: SHFE gold inventory is 17247 kg, CME gold inventory is 1206.6146 tons, etc. [15]. - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview: The US dollar index is at 99.1235, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 41603.07 points, etc. [21].