Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with a relatively strong oscillation trend from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export continue to support the aluminum price, but the off - season characteristics of terminal operating rates are obvious, and the hype about the Guinea mining rights theme has cooled down. The resistance above 20,500 is still significant, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [5][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The aluminum market is in a large - range oscillation, and it should be treated as a relatively strong oscillation from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export support the aluminum price, but the resistance above 20,500 is large, and it is recommended to hold a moderate amount of long positions [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was believed that the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract would continue to consolidate around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging: Spot enterprises can consider making appropriate purchases at low prices [9]. Overall View Supply Side - Bauxite Market: The supply of domestic ore is expected to change little in the short term and remains tight. Although the import volume of bauxite reached a record high in April, some suppliers declared force majeure, which may affect imports after June [10]. - Alumina Market: As of May 22, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.35 million tons and an operating rate of 76.96%. The supply change is limited, and the spot is still in short supply. The profit margin has recovered, and enterprises' production willingness has increased. The price of domestic alumina futures is expected to be between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton next week [10]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: As of May 22, the theoretical operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.865 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the room for further production increase this year is limited [10]. Demand Side - Aluminum Profiles: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 56% this week, with significant regional differentiation in the building materials sector. The operating rate is expected to decline slightly in the short term [11]. - Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.6%. The export of terminal aluminum products has recovered, but it is still difficult to offset the seasonal decline in domestic consumption. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 70.6%, and the industry is in the traditional off - season. The operating rate is expected to decline [11]. - Aluminum Cables: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 64.8%, and it is expected to remain stable [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%, and it is expected to remain stable but weak. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.6%, and the terminal demand is weak. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 556,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from the previous week and about 28% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017. The social inventory of aluminum rods is 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and about 35% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at the lowest level since 1990 [11]. Profit - Alumina Profit: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, up from about 450 yuan/ton last week [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Profit: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton, down from 2,900 yuan/ton last week [12]. Market Expectation - There are no significant positive or negative factors in the macro - level next week. The supply side is stable, and the "rush - to - export" will continue to support demand. However, if the alumina price drops from a high level, the Shanghai Aluminum price may fall below 20,000. It is difficult to break through the upper limit of the 20,300 range [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly due to the willingness of mainstream mines to support prices. The coal market is weak, and the alumina price rose first and then fell, experiencing profit - taking [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the alumina inventory has decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline [15][16]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,620 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% this week, and it is expected to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is still neutral and relatively strong. The low inventory and the possible rush - to - export in China support the spot price against the futures price [29]. - Based on the past 10 - year statistical data, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. Shanghai Aluminum is currently running close to the high - price range of the past 10 years, and it may continue to oscillate in the next week, with possible adjustments after the Dragon Boat Festival [34]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $6.6/ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,490 yuan/ton, and the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which supports the electrolytic aluminum price [36][41][42]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise in the recent three weeks, and the short - term market may continue to rebound slightly. The net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has turned to a slight net short position this week, and the short - term may still have a slight adjustment [44][47].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-26 03:41