农林牧渔行业周报：认价出栏增加，猪价继续回落-20250526

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Views - The agricultural sector is viewed as a defensive investment option amid a complex external environment, with potential for stable growth in quality sub-sector leaders [4] - Current prices of major meat proteins and agricultural products are in a bottoming phase, indicating a potential for recovery [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.18 percentage points during the week of May 19-23, 2025, with the Shenwan Agricultural Index closing at 2,611.24, down 0.36% [1][16] - Among sub-sectors, the feed sector rose by 1.20%, while animal health, agricultural product processing, planting, breeding, and fishery sectors declined by 0.27%, 0.49%, 0.61%, 0.76%, and 1.59% respectively [1][18] Industry Dynamics - In pig farming, the increase in pricing for market pigs has led to a continued decline in pig prices, with the national average price at 14.20 yuan/kg, down 2.81% week-on-week and down 13.63% year-on-year [2] - The profit from self-breeding pigs is 48.21 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.45 yuan/head week-on-week, while the profit from purchased piglets is -16.06 yuan/head, down 64.26 yuan/head week-on-week [2] - In the poultry sector, chick prices stabilized, but meat chicken prices continued to weaken due to high inventory levels in downstream slaughtering [2] Key Data - As of May 23, 2025, the national average prices for wheat, rice, and corn were 2,464.56 yuan/ton (down 0.18%), 2,864.00 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2,295.71 yuan/ton (down 0.37%) respectively [3] - Soybean meal prices rebounded slightly after two weeks of decline, with the national average at 3,024.00 yuan/ton, up 1.20% week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality pig farming companies with strong cost control, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For poultry, it recommends integrated industry leaders like Shengnong Development for white feather chickens and Lihua Stock for yellow feather chickens [4] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted as a key player benefiting from the recovery in livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, attention is drawn to Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, along with seed companies like Denghai Seeds and Longping High-Tech [4]