存储芯片周度跟踪：1Q25全球NAND市场环比下降，HBM4溢价幅度或超30%-20250526

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the electronics sector [7]. Core Insights - The global NAND market experienced a significant decline in Q1 2025, with a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 25.3%, resulting in a market size of $13.01 billion [1]. - The demand for HBM technology is driven by AI server requirements, with HBM4 expected to have a premium exceeding 30% due to increased manufacturing complexity [3]. - The DRAM market shows a trend where DDR4 prices are rising faster than DDR5 prices, with an average price increase of 2.22% observed [2]. Summary by Sections NAND Market - In Q1 2025, the enterprise-level market demand for NAND slowed down, leading to a 25.3% quarter-over-quarter decline in the global NAND Flash market size, which reached $13.01 billion [1][27]. - The average price fluctuation for 22 NAND particle categories ranged from 0.00% to 2.41%, with an average increase of 1.38% [1]. DRAM Market - The DRAM market saw 18 categories of products with price changes ranging from -0.81% to 6.39%, with 14 categories experiencing price increases [2][27]. - The expectation of tighter supply in the future is driving DDR4 prices to rise more than DDR5 prices, with a continued upward trend anticipated in Q2 2025 [2]. HBM Market - The development of HBM technology is significantly influenced by the demand for AI servers, with major manufacturers advancing HBM4 products [3][28]. - The complexity of HBM4's chip design and increased I/O interfaces are expected to raise production costs, leading to a premium above 30% [3]. Market Dynamics - The discontinuation of certain DDR4 products has triggered a "butterfly effect," causing significant price increases in high-spec DDR4 components [4][28]. - The supply constraints in low-capacity eMMC and the normal replenishment demand from Tier 1 customers have also contributed to price hikes in eMMC products [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the HBM industry chain, which is expected to benefit from the rapid development of advanced computing chips [5]. - Recommended stocks include Saiteng Co., Yishitong, Lianrui New Materials, and Huahai Chengke for HBM, while Dongxin Co., Zhaoyi Innovation, Hengshuo Co., and others are suggested for the storage chip sector [5].