Soochow Securities·2025-05-26 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in inventory, a decline in US gas prices, and weak demand domestically, while European gas prices show a slight increase [1][10] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the potential for demand recovery in 2025, alongside cost optimization for gas companies [1][54] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 23, 2025, US HH gas prices decreased by 4.8%, while European TTF prices increased by 5.8%. The prices for East Asia JKM and China's LNG showed increases of 5% and 5.5% respectively [10][12] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas supply increased by 1.3% week-on-week to 1,118 billion cubic feet per day, with total demand rising by 4.2% to 982 billion cubic feet per day. However, the industrial sector saw a decrease in consumption by 0.9% [15] - European gas consumption for January-February 2025 was 115.5 billion cubic meters, up 11% year-on-year, while the average gas generation in Europe decreased by 15.5% week-on-week [17][26] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment [39] Important Events - The US LNG import tariff was reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [46] - The European Commission voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, allowing member states to achieve storage goals more easily [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments. Key recommendations include New Energy (5.2% dividend yield), China Gas (7.0% dividend yield), and Kunlun Energy (4.1% dividend yield) [54]