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静水流深,谋定后动
China Post Securities·2025-05-26 04:51

Market Performance Review - The A-share market continued a pattern of rising and then falling, with a defensive style prevailing. Most major indices declined, with the CSI A50 being the only major index to rise. The large-cap indices, such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, experienced smaller declines, while the STAR 50 and CSI 1000 saw larger drops [12][15] - The sector rotation remained rapid, with pharmaceuticals, comprehensive sectors, non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances leading the gains. In contrast, beauty care, non-bank financials, and retail sectors, which had performed well the previous week, saw significant declines [15][28] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed a continued decline, with the 7-day moving average reported at -8.0% as of May 23, slightly up from -9.9% on May 17, but still in a negative range, indicating a lack of confidence in the overall A-share market [4][17] - Financing activity remained stagnant, with net purchases maintaining stability and the proportion of financing transactions slightly decreasing, reflecting the low enthusiasm among personal investors [20][21] Future Outlook and Investment Views - The A-share market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to a lack of breakthrough opportunities. Although the recent phase of the US-China trade war has yielded some positive results, it reduces the necessity for large-scale domestic stimulus policies, delaying the expected policy window until late July [28][30] - The report suggests that the current market index has rebounded to levels seen before the US-China trade war 2.0, indicating that further upward movement requires new catalysts to boost market confidence [28][30] Configuration Aspects - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions enhance the cost-effectiveness of dividend stocks. It recommends focusing on pure dividend stocks such as banks, railways, and power sectors, while waiting for clear domestic stimulus policies to catalyze consumer stocks [5][30]