Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: May 26 - May 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, with supply still in excess. The price is expected to remain volatile and weak, and the overall trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the operating load of the soda ash industry decreased, and some enterprises entered maintenance, while some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The industry operating rate remained around 80%. The demand side was continuously weak, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand. The inventory, although slightly decreased, was still at a high level [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Due to enterprise maintenance, supply decreased last week, and the spot price was stable with the support of enterprise backlogs. Demand was stable, downstream restocked as needed, consumption and operation were stable, export sentiment improved, and some enterprises' order volumes increased. A 500 - ton production line of float glass was planned to be ignited, and photovoltaic remained stable. It was expected that SA2509 would operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Some soda ash enterprises entered maintenance last week, and some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The demand side was continuously weak, and the supply - demand pattern did not improve significantly. The inventory was still at a high level. It was expected that the soda ash futures price would remain volatile and weak. SA2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [11]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Soda ash operating rate (weekly in China), production (weekly in China), light and heavy - quality inventory (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [12][16][18] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 52.3, indicating a bearish tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 90.5, indicating a rapid influx of main - force funds; the long - short divergence was 91.3, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [22] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand are difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [30]. - Trend Logic: Last week, float glass showed a weak and volatile trend. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was relatively stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises mainly purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year [30]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The spot price of domestic float glass decreased last week, with regional differentiation. Most prices declined due to weak transactions, and a few increased due to reduced production. There was a production line ignition this week, and new production capacity was released, so production might increase. Downstream orders were differentiated, and purchases were mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of original sheets was at a high level in the same period, and enterprises mainly aimed to reduce inventory. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Float glass showed a weak and volatile trend last week. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand were difficult to change in the short term. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Float glass production (weekly in China), operating rate (weekly in China), production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ending inventory (weekly in China) [35][41][43] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 17.3, indicating an unclear tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 52.9, indicating a relatively large inflow of funds; the long - short divergence was 95.8, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [48]
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-26 05:13