全球市场观察系列：“卖出美国”续集：股债汇又“三杀”

Group 1 - The report indicates a negative sentiment in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 down by 2.6% and the Nasdaq and Dow Jones both down by 2.5% during the week, reflecting a broader market decline [4][9]. - The U.S. long-term bond yields have risen, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points, indicating a shift in market focus from tariffs to fiscal policy, which is expected to impact bond market trading [3][4]. - The geopolitical risks are highlighted, particularly with Israel's plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, which have heightened market risk aversion and contributed to the weakness in U.S. stocks [2][4]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market is likely to continue experiencing volatility in the short term, primarily due to rising long-term bond yields around 4.5%, which may suppress stock valuations [2][4]. - In the medium to long term, the market is expected to return to a focus on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience, supported by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as inflation declines [2][4]. - The report notes that the recent passage of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which includes tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks, is anticipated to increase fiscal deficits significantly, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4]. Group 3 - The report highlights that the global stock ETF inflows have slowed, with a net inflow of $6.8 billion into U.S. stock ETFs, while emerging markets, particularly China, have seen significant outflows [6][27]. - The report indicates that gold ETFs have seen mixed activity, with some funds like SPDR Gold Trust experiencing inflows, while others like iShares Gold Trust have seen outflows, reflecting changing investor sentiment towards gold [6][23]. - The report emphasizes that the market is currently in a state of cautious optimism regarding Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index showing a 1.1% increase, although overall pressure remains [6][12].