集运日报：美欧关税延长至7月，盘面整体高位震荡，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈，等待回调机会-20250526

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of US - EU tariffs to July has led to high - level oscillations in the overall market, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for correction opportunities [1]. - Tariffs have become a means in trade negotiations, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. While the easing of the China - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity in 90 days, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the US - bound shipping capacity allocation within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [3]. - In the short - term, due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating. Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large, so a positive arbitrage structure is adopted for now. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits on rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Indexes - May 12th: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period [2]. - May 23rd: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In May, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, a 33 - month high; in April, the preliminary service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the comprehensive PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - China: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - US: In April, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary comprehensive PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 23rd, the main contract 2508 closed at 2224.9, up 2.73%. The trading volume was 74,200 lots, and the open interest was 49,200 lots, with a reduction of 2478 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The freight rates online in early June are relatively firm, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the stable cargo volume in the spot market, the market may decline after the peak US - bound shipping season, suppressing the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the overall market fluctuates significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Short - term Strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, a positive arbitrage structure is adopted [4]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3.6 Contract Rules - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].