Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Soybean Oil (2509 Contract): Short - term may fluctuate and consolidate [1] - Soybean Meal: Short - term may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2] - Corn: After a short - term price drop, there is a demand for a rebound; adopt a band - trading strategy [3] - Copper: The copper price has not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average; set the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [4] - Lithium Carbonate (2507 Contract): May fluctuate weakly; consider shorting on rallies [6][7] - Rebar: The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the price; adopt a strategy of buying on dips at low levels [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply is abundant; prices may fluctuate weakly at low levels [9] - Iron Ore (2509): Short - term may fluctuate weakly; traders are advised to be cautious [10] - Crude Oil (WTI Main Contract): May fluctuate between $55 and $65 per barrel [11] - Rubber: Overall supply exceeds demand; pay attention to the correction market under the pressure level [12][13] - PVC: The fundamentals remain weak; the futures price may fluctuate at low levels [14] - Soda Ash: The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] 3. Summaries by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International Soybeans: It is the sowing and growing season for US soybeans and the harvesting and exporting season for South American soybeans. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared with 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - Domestic Industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end. Pay attention to the potential increase in soybean oil inventory after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,880 yuan/ton (up 20), Tianjin 2,970 yuan/ton (up 20), Rizhao 2,920 yuan/ton (up 40), and Dongguan 2,920 yuan/ton (up 20) [2] - Market Analysis: The Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. The price of US soybeans has risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil refinery operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment strategy [2] Corn - Spot Information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,195 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, and 2,414 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region [3] - Market Analysis: From the external market, there is an expectation of looser corn imports in the medium - to - long - term due to the Sino - US joint statement, but the negative impact on the domestic futures price is relatively limited. The May USDA report has raised the US production and ending inventory, which is negative for the US corn futures price. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but the downstream demand is weak [3] Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77,930 - 78,140 yuan, down 50. The import copper ore index is - 44.28, down 1.23 [4] - Market Analysis: The global tariff confrontation is gradually easing, which is beneficial to the commodity market. Domestic policies are supportive, but raw material supply issues persist, and the copper market is in a complex state of game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets [4] Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Market Analysis: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. The supply is high, and the demand improvement is insufficient. The inventory is accumulating [6] Rebar - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - Market Analysis: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Iron Ore Price Index (Platts) is 99.7. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 757, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 759 [10] - Market Analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipment volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased slightly but the procurement is still cautious, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] Crude Oil - Market Analysis: The resurgence of twists in the US - Iran negotiation has boosted oil prices, but the overall oil price is still fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to exceed demand, and the price center may move down, but there is technical support at $55 per barrel for the WTI main contract [11] Rubber - Spot Information: Not provided comprehensively. - Market Analysis: The Sino - US trade situation and the supply situation in domestic and Southeast Asian production areas lead to an overall supply - surplus situation. The potential impact of US auto tariffs on demand is a concern [12][13] PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,760 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton month - on - month. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [14] - Market Analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased [14] Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.25 yuan/ton, down 5.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [15] - Market Analysis: The supply has decreased slightly due to plant maintenance, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]
安粮期货投资早参-20250526
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-05-26 05:23