Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Urea & Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Researcher: Cao Xuemei, Zhang Ying 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views Urea - Urea trading logic has returned to short - term supply - demand game after the digestion of export news, with prices falling from high levels. The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. Spot prices also declined [7][12]. - Supply remains high, with a national urea开工负荷率 of 87.84% and a daily output of 20.36 tons. Coal prices are under pressure, and demand from the compound fertilizer and other industrial sectors is weak. Overall production and sales have weakened, and prices may continue to decline weakly, with an operation range of 1770 - 1870 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - Methanol prices have continued to fall. The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot price in Taicang also decreased [8][39]. - Supply is relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.04%. The arrival volume has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. However, due to the limited inventory pressure on enterprises, the decline in methanol prices is expected to slow down, with an operation range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Changes - The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The daily average price in the Henan market was 1868 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1877 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton [7][12]. Supply - The national urea开工负荷率 was 87.84%, with a gas - head enterprise开工负荷率 of 74.98%, basically flat from last week. The daily output was 20.36 tons. A maintenance device in Xinjiang is expected to resume next week, and the daily output is expected to increase slightly [16]. Cost and Profit - Anthracite prices are weakly stable, with the price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi at 930 - 980 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.56%, and that of gas - based urea is - 4.56% [19]. Demand - The average pre - collection days of major urea producers are 4.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate is 95.4%. Agricultural demand is moderately following up, the compound fertilizer industry's start - up has decreased, and the start - up of downstream products such as melamine has also declined slightly [21]. - As of May 22, there is still some unmet fertilizer demand for rice and corn. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, down 2.69 percentage points from last week, and the inventory is 76.26 tons, down 1.25 tons [26][29]. - The start - up rate of the melamine industry is 63.95%, down 6 percentage points, and the weekly output is 3.15 tons. The demand support from the board market has weakened [32]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and port inventory is 20.3 tons, up 3.5 tons. The number of registered warrants is 7548, equivalent to 15.096 tons of urea, an increase of 193 warrants (0.386 tons) from last week [36]. Methanol Market Changes - The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2278 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [8][39]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants is 87.04%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan have restarted, and the arrival volume is expected to be 9.7 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons from last week [45]. Cost and Profit - Coal supply may tighten slightly, but inventory at all levels is high, and the decline in thermal coal prices is expected to slow down. The weekly profit of coal - based methanol is 57 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from last week; that of natural - gas - based methanol is 37 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; and that of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 351 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [48]. Demand - The start - up rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 83.82%, up 1.51 percentage points. The demand from the main downstream is relatively stable, but the traditional demand is in the off - season. Some acetic acid plants are under maintenance, and there are shutdown projects in BDO and dimethyl ether, so the demand support for methanol is limited [52]. Inventory - The inventory of sample methanol enterprises is 23.52 tons, down 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, up 0.65 tons [57].
长江期货尿素甲醇周报-20250526
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-26 05:16