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康辰药业(603590):24 年报&25 一季报点评:业绩阵痛期,成长主线清晰

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.64 CNY based on a 46x PE for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in profits in 2024, with a net profit of 0.42 billion CNY, down 71.9% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment. However, the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of recovery, with a net profit of 0.44 billion CNY, up 6.8% year-on-year [10]. - The company's existing business faced challenges, but growth opportunities are emerging as marketing transformations progress. The sales revenue for the product "Su Ling" was 5.92 billion CNY, down 3.5% year-on-year, while "Mi Ge Xi" saw a revenue drop of 21.6% due to local procurement policies [10]. - The clinical pipeline is advancing well, with several key products in development, including KC1036 for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 9.20 billion CNY, with a projected decline to 8.25 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 9.69 billion CNY in 2025, representing a 17.4% growth [4]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.50 billion CNY, expected to drop to 0.42 billion CNY in 2024, but forecasted to rebound to 1.33 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 215.6% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.84 CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.14 CNY in 2026 and 1.40 CNY in 2027 [2][4].