Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [24][25]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [27][28]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [29][30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to oscillate [31][32]. - For PVC, it is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. - For urea, it is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. - For p - xylene (PX), short - term caution is recommended, and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and control risks [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and be cautious about the upside space [40]. - For short - fiber, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and be cautious when participating [41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side, and be cautious about cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and pay attention to the operation of enterprise equipment and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [47][48]. - For pulp, it is expected to rebound in the short - term, and pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50][51]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [52][53]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, for soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For cotton, wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. - For sugar, conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. - For corn and starch, temporarily wait and see [77][79]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price is weak [80][81]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36 billion yuan. The State Council executive meeting discussed relevant policies. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain caution [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. From January to April 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures had different performances. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate industry's decline has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. The price may decline further, but the downside space is limited. Investors can short on rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and it is in an oscillating pattern. Investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The price may continue to fall, and investors can short on rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + may increase production. The oil market may be oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The global trade demand is recovering, and the Singapore inventory has increased. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost have improved. It is expected to oscillate [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to oscillate [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The export policy has changed, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply has increased, and the cost support has weakened. Short - term caution is recommended [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply has increased, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased, and the demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, but the new device is about to be put into production. The demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line has decreased, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to the operation of equipment and the price of liquid chlorine [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to rebound in the short - term [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and the support policy is being implemented. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [52][53]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin declined. Some mines are resuming production, the supply may increase, and the demand is good. It is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, the cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures are oscillating. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The US - EU trade friction may intensify, and the domestic soybean supply is abundant. For soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to cotton exports. The US cotton planting rate and production are expected to change. Wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. Conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. Some apple - producing areas may have reduced production, and the inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has changed slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is weak. Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [72][73][74]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The US - EU tariff threat affects the US corn price. The domestic corn supply is under pressure, and the demand is stable. Temporarily wait and see [77][79]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The expected arrival of logs has increased, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly [80][81].
早间评论-20250526
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-26 05:46