摩根士丹利：关税缓和下的持续通缩压力PPT

Investment Rating - The report has revised the real GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing deflationary pressures [3][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariffs have de-escalated, challenges remain, particularly with persistent deflation affecting the economy [3][34]. - Consumption weakness is noted, driven by a sluggish job market, despite policy-driven improvements [15][18]. - The report emphasizes a supply-centric policy approach, with a focus on infrastructure and manufacturing investments as key areas for potential growth [24][27]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026, reflecting a lower tariff path [3][34]. - The GDP deflator is expected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflation [34]. Tariff and Trade - US tariffs on China's exports have decreased but remain elevated, with potential for further escalation [9][10]. - China's export growth is anticipated to remain robust in the second quarter of 2025 before declining in the latter half of the year [10][11]. Consumption and Employment - Retail sales and consumption have shown weakness, particularly in goods related to housing and automobiles [14][15]. - Employment indicators suggest a challenging job market, impacting consumer confidence and spending [16][15]. Policy Measures - The report discusses a lighter and delayed domestic stimulus, with a focus on front-loading a Rmb2 trillion stimulus package in the second and third quarters of 2025 [18][21]. - A supplementary budget is expected in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a smaller size than initially anticipated [21][34]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas identified include manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research [23][24]. - The report suggests that infrastructure and manufacturing fixed asset investments are likely to remain robust [23][24].